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FXUS64 KLUB 221723
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1123 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG, SOME DENSE, IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CAPROCK AND ROLLING PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- LOW CHANCES FOR QUICK-HITTING RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN INTACT FOR
THURSDAY MORNING.
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO FOLLOW HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
A COOL MORNING IS AGAIN EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MULESHOE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS LAST
NIGHT AND MAY DO SO AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS. AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER MONTANA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
EAST OF THE ROCKIES TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN US LEADS TO A SHARPER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR REGION AND THUS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH. RESULTANT WAA
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S. THE SW FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE,
PARTICULARLY OFF THE CAPROCK ALTHOUGH INITIALLY COULD REACH AS FAR
WEST AS LUBBOCK. LOW STRATUS/AREAS OF FOG IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AREAS. USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING DURING THIS
TIME.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
A COUPLE OF CHANGES HAVE BEEN INITIATED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE,
BUT THE OVERALL TRENDS ON THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE REMAIN INTACT. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY A DEVELOPING PV ANOMALY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AS THE
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BEGINS TO BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
AHEAD OF AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. DURING THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY, LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE
ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PH, WITH A WEAK, SHALLOW COLD FRONT
DEVELOPING AND MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, A BELT OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL BE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS, AND FOG IS
FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE
LATE-MORNING HOURS. SOME OF THE FOG COULD BE DENSE. THE PASSAGE OF
THIS COLD FRONT WILL MIX OUT THE FOG; HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL STRATUS MAY
BE SLOW TO ERODE AS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL BE CAPPED NEAR 1-KM AGL
OWING TO THE VEERED 850-700 MB FLOW AND AS THE THICKENING CIRRUS
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING PV ANOMALY PREVENTS FULL
INSOLATION FROM OCCURRING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WERE LOWERED
FROM THE NBM TO ALIGN WITH THE 00Z MOS GUIDANCE, AS WEAK CAA WILL
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON BENEATH THE CIRRUS SHIELD.
A NORTH-TO-SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OF AROUND 15 DEGREES REMAINS
FORECAST ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE
50S TO THE UPPER 60S.
BY TUESDAY, THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND
WAVY ACROSS THE LOWER 48 FOLLOWING THE SERIES OF CYCLONIC WAVE
BREAKING EVENTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. A WELL-DEFINED,
ELONGATED, AND MERIDIONAL PV STREAMER WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE
GREAT PLAINS AFTER EMERGING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS IN CONGRUENCE
WITH AN INTENSE JET STREAK TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD OVER THE CWA. THE
PASSAGE OF THIS PV STREAMER, AND RELATED CONFLUENT FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING TOWARDS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, WILL ALLOW THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE COLD
FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH WEST TEXAS; HOWEVER, CAA WILL BE WEAK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FROM THE NBM AS
POST-FRONTAL MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN SHALLOW DESPITE INCREASING
INSOLATION AS ANY RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL STRATUS IS ENTRAINED. FARTHER
WEST, A SPLITTING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH IS
STILL FORECAST TO OCCUR, WITH THE SOUTHERN-STREAM TROUGH BECOMING
NEUTRALLY-TILTED AS IT PIVOTS TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL NWP GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, AND THE RESULTANT AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE WILL
CAUSE THE MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS TO INTENSIFY TO NEAR 70 KT
AND 100 KT AT 500 MB AND 300 MB, RESPECTIVELY.
AT THE SURFACE, LEE CYCLOGENESIS OF A 996-998 MB LOW IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR NEAR THE RATON MESA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A SHARPENING
DRYLINE BRANCHING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WHICH WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT SURGING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CWA. WINDS WERE
RAISED SEVERAL KT FROM THE NBM, WITH PREFERENCE GIVEN TOWARDS THE
NBM 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS PROGNOSTICATION, WHICH ALIGNS WINDS
CLOSER TO THE LONGER-RANGE MOS OUTPUT (I.E., MEX/ECX/ECM) BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE UPPER-BOUNDS OF THE GUIDANCE. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF THE 996-998 MB SURFACE LOW WILL DRIVE A MODERATE ISALLOBARIC
RESPONSE BENEATH THE NEGATIVELY-TILTING TROUGH, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL INCREASES TO THE WIND FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY
MAY BE NECESSARY, AND A CONSIDERATION WAS ALSO MADE TO NUDGE WINDS
HIGHER THAN WHAT IS BEING REFLECTED IN THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE WAKE OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT AS
THE CORE OF THE NEGATIVELY-TILTING TROUGH PIVOTS OVER THE TX PH,
WITH AN INVERTED, POST-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH MAINTAINING THE
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE THROUGH THURSDAY. FAST-MOVING, WAA-INDUCED RAIN
SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS ON THURSDAY
MORNING, AND THE LOW POPS ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL FORECASTS
HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED, BUT WITH AN EARLIER SHIFT TO THE TIMING.
ISENTROPES WITHIN THE LOW- AND MID-LEVELS WILL BECOME QUICKLY
ENTRAINED BY THE DRY SLOT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ATTAINS ITS
NEGATIVE TILT, AND THE SUPERPOSITION OF THE VERTICALLY-STACKED LOWS
SHOULD KEEP ANY DEFORMATION BANDING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOW FORECAST TO END BEFORE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. DRY AND WARM WEATHER REMAINS
FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FIELD
OF PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL SHIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD AS THE INTENSE
EXTENSION OF THE JET STREAM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
BEGINS TO WEAKEN, WHICH WOULD RESTORE THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE DESERT AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
SINCAVAGE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
FIRST ISSUE THIS CYCLE IS WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON. SAID SPEEDS
ARE A LITTLE SLOW TO INCREASE, BUT AREA MESONETS SUGGEST THAT IS
NOW ONGOING. WILL CONTINUE WITH ROUGHLY 15G25 KTS, ESPECIALLY KLBB
AND KPVW. SECOND ISSUE IS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RETURN OF STRATUS
AND/OR FOG TONIGHT. MODELS LOOK TO BE UNDERPLAYING THE POTENTIAL
SOME WITH A PERIOD IFR/MVFR LIKELY ESPECIALLY EAST OF KLBB/KPVW
AND SOUTH OF KCDS. HOW MUCH THOSE THREE TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED
STILL OF SOME QUESTION, ESPECIALLY WITH WHERE THE WEST SIDE OF
THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL BE. WILL MAINTAIN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
NOW BUT WILL NOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE PESSIMISTIC CONDITIONS
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...07
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