033
FXUS64 KLUB 222331
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
531 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG, SOME DENSE, IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CAPROCK AND ROLLING PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- LOW CHANCES FOR QUICK-HITTING RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN INTACT FOR
THURSDAY MORNING.
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO FOLLOW HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FROM
WEST-NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO WEST-SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
A MODEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WHERE MOISTURE IS AND WILL BE FAIRLY RICH FOR MID/LATE
DECEMBER, AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SOME STRATUS MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE BEING ERODED EASTWARD, BUT A RETURN TRIP IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS EASTWARD EXTENT OF EROSION WILL BE LIMITED AND
AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE, THE DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN STRATUS AND FOG REMAINS QUITE
UNCERTAIN AND IS OFTEN DICTATED BY WHICH FORMS FIRST, WHICH IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS WHERE THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW
LEVEL ADVECTION IS FAIRLY LOW. CURRENTLY WILL FAVOR STRATUS, BUT AN
IRREGULAR DEVELOPMENT AND/OR ADVECTION OF THIS LOW DECK COULD
PROMOTE MORE IN THE WAY OF FOG IN THE INTERMITTENT CLEAR SPOTS.
SITUATION REMAINS WORTHY OF THE FOG MENTION IN THE GRIDS, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD THE DENSE DESCRIPTOR TO THE
GRIDS. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE WEST AND NORTH WHICH WILL
SET UP A WIDE GRADIENT IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WITH THESE
AREAS PROMOTING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND THE MOISTURE/CLOUDS/FOG TO
THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING CONDITIONS ON THE MILD SIDE.
MONDAY WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW LINGER ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
THROUGH THE MORNING AND THIS SHIFT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF THE LOW. THIS WILL
SCOUR SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE MOIST AXIS, BUT STRATUS HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF HANGING ON
THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STRATUS SPREADING SOUTHWARD ON THE
NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT CLOUD
COVER EXTENT AND EVOLUTION AND EFFECTS OF INSOLATION IN ADDITION TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD ADVECTION THAN NOTED IN THE
WARMEST MODELS POINT TO TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARMER NBM AND MAVMOS
AND NUDGING TOWARD THE COOLER METMOS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
A PLEASANT CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR AREAS ACROSS THE
FA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT US THE
REINFORCED COOLER AIR MASS ON MONDAY, EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST
TUESDAY MORNING. A LOW-LEVEL STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD OF
THE AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING, BEFORE CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORM, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THIS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS, WITH POST FRONTAL
NORTHERLY WINDS KEEPING THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE, DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY
MOVE OVERHEAD, AS OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE REGION. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO
VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD, AND A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH, GUSTING TO 30 MPH, ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AS WE SEE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGIN TO
TIGHTEN. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR A
QUICK WARM-UP IN TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE BOARD. CONFIDENCE IN DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE STILL
NOT LOCKED IN FOR CERTAIN, WITH MOIST RETURN FLOW PRESENT AND A
STRATUS DECK EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WE
COULD SEE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES IF CLOUD COVER
DECIDES TO LINGER.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL DIVERGE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY, WITH THE ECMWF (WETTER SOLUTION) KEEPING THE
CENTER OF THE LOW ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE, KEEPING THE BETTER SOURCE
OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS THE FA. WHEREAS THE GFS (DRIER SOLUTION)
TRACKS MORE TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS, DRY SLOTTING THE FA. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE
MORE IN LINED WITH RECENT RUNS, REFLECTING A SIMILAR EVOLUTION TO
THE 12Z GFS. OVERALL, PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM AND WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN WE SEE AND THE EXACT
POSITIONING OF THE SYSTEM, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS AREAS EAST
OF I-27 WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDES. REGARDLESS,
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK HITTING, AND IF SHOWERS DEVELOP THEY WILL
LIKELY BE OUT OF THE FA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL ALSO SEE
ANOTHER SLIGHT COOL DOWN AS THIS SYSTEM SWINGS A PACIFIC FRONT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SADLY, THE AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY
RECOVER BY FRIDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AIDING IN TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH, BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE FA, WITH A WARMER AND DRIER TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS LARGE SCALE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
SOME VIS REDUCTION IS POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY, HOWEVER, IN HOW LOW VIS WILL DROP AND
WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. IF CLOUD COVER MOVES OVERHEAD BEFORE
FOG DEVELOPS, THEN VIS MAY STILL REMAIN VFR. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR VIS TO DROP AS LOW AS IFR. CIGS SHOULD, OVERALL,
REMAIN MVFR OR GREATER. CONFIDENCE IS EVEN LOWER IN REGARDS TO
REDUCED VIS/CIG AT PVW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 14Z.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...51
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