900
FXUS64 KLUB 232020
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
220 PM CST MON DEC 23 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER CHRISTMAS EVE
- FOG POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE UNEVENTFUL
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. WARMER AND DRY THEREAFTER.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST MON DEC 23 2024
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON A SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF
CHILDRESS WITH A DRYLINE PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE CIRCULATION OFF THE DECK IS A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH A CLEAR CIRCULATION APPEARING IN THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE (AT LEAST WHAT CAN BE SEEN
THROUGH HOLES IN THE CIRRUS). THIS EVOLUTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING PAST
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND STRATUS WRAPPING IN BEHIND
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE COMBINATION OF STRATUS AND CIRRUS
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES AREA WIDE TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MODEST, AND WITH THE
CLOUD COVER THE WARMER NBM LOW TEMPERATURES ARE PREFERRED. REGARDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, THAT
SIGNAL IS DIMINISHING. PROGGED DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT
APPEAR AS GREAT AND LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER LOOKS MODEST AND
TRANSIENT WITH A QUICKLY-MOVING BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE
FRONT ADDED TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. THUS, MAYBE TO RUE
THIS DECISION, WILL PULL SAID MENTION FROM THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, BUT THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME
INCREASING MID CLOUD LATE TONIGHT OR AFTER SUNRISE AS A SHARPENING
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A BRIEF PERIOD WITH A QUICK INCREASE IN
VORTICITY ADVECTION COULD END UP SQUEEZING A FEW SPRINKLES OUT OF
THE MID LEVEL DECK, BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK TO
BE REMOTE. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED MODEST LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION SUGGEST THE NBM IS TOO WARM AND HAVE FAVORED CONSMOS FOR
TOMORROW'S HIGH TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST MON DEC 23 2024
A RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST, WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES RACING PAST THE REGION
WITHIN THE BROADLY ZONAL FLOW. TOMORROW'S MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST VIA THE RED
RIVER ROUTE TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES IN ITS WAKE,
COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
SUPPORT THE RISK FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT, LOCATIONS ON
THE CAPROCK, WHERE CLEARING AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ARE MOST LIKELY,
APPEAR MOST FAVORED FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY, THOUGH
EVEN OFF THE CAPROCK COULD SEE PATCHY FOG, SHOULD THE STRATUS CLEAR.
ANY FOG WILL THIN/SCATTER/LIFT BY MIDDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE 50S, NEAR SEASONAL NORMS, CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT CHRISTMAS DAY WILL QUICKLY YIELD TO
TROUGHING AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM, PROGGED TO BE A CLOSED LOW NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS ON 18Z WEDNESDAY, TRAVERSES WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY.
NWP CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY RESOLVING EXACTLY HOW FAR
SOUTH THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG AS IT MOVES THROUGH, WITH THE CENTER OF
LOW ANYWHERE FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO (GFS & CANADIAN) TO SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO (NAM) AT 12Z THURSDAY, WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT MIDDAY IN
BETWEEN. OBVIOUSLY, THE FURTHER SOUTH THE SYSTEM CAN DIG WILL
IMPROVE BOTH THE COVERAGE AND DURATION OF RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
CWA ON THURSDAY. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS STILL OFF THE WEST COAST, WE
WON'T HAVE GOOD RAOB DATA TO HELP RESOLVE ITS MOST LIKELY EVOLUTION
UNTIL IT COMES ASHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WE
HAVE GENERALLY ACCEPTED THE NBM POPS, WHICH HAVE WIDESPREAD SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS 06-12Z THURSDAY, INCREASING TO SOLID CHANCE POPS OFF THE
CAPROCK 12-18Z, THEN LINGERING LOW POPS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY EVEN DEVELOP OUT EAST, SO
WE COULDN'T RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WITH THE CLOUD COVER,
AND HOPEFULLY A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION, HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO CHRISTMAS DAY.
THEREAFTER, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FEW LOWER AMPLITUDE WAVES TRANSLATE BY TO OUR
NORTH. EACH DISTURBANCE MAY DRAW SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, BUT THAT WILL BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF THEIR
IMPACT. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S EXPECTED FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST MON DEC 23 2024
STRATUS HAS CLEARED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL LINGER A
BIT LONGER AT KCDS. THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL THREE TERMINALS BEFORE STRATUS BUILDS SOUTHWARD BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE PAST THE TERMINALS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRATUS IS MOST LIKELY AT KCDS AND LEAST
FAVORABLE AT KLBB WHERE CHANCES AT THIS POINT ARE NEAR 50/50. MVFR
CEILINGS AT FIRST WILL LOWER TO IFR AT KCDS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...07
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