996   
FXUS64 KLUB 082323  
AFDLUB  
  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
523 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
  
UPDATED AT 516 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025  
  
 - A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT  
   TONIGHT FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE  
   NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  
  
 - A WARM, DRY, AND WINDY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF   
   NEXT WEEK POTENTIALLY LEADING TO SEVERAL DAYS OF FIRE WEATHER   
   CONCERNS.   
  
  
   
SHORT TERM  
  
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 155 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025  
  
THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT-TERM REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH ONLY MINOR   
ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER   
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE CHILDRESS AND HALL COUNTIES,   
AND HAS ALSO BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST (09/06Z) FOR ALL   
COUNTIES WITHIN THE ADVISORY. IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, THE   
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO EJECT OVER WEST TEXAS, WITH   
MOST OF THE WAA-INDUCED CONVECTION NOW ADVECTING OFF TOWARDS THE   
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN OK. LIGHTNING FLASH DENSITY HAS SINCE   
GONE TO ZERO ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS, AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NO   
LONGER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BAROCLINIC LEAF SHIFTS AWAY   
FROM THE CWA. HOWEVER, TRENDS IN WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY HAVE SHOWN THE   
DEVELOPMENT OF DEFORMATION BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE   
WARM-CONVEYOR, AND WHILE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN CLOSED   
SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING, THE ONCE-OPEN TROUGH AT 300 MB HAS NOW   
CLOSED AS WELL. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF MIXED-PHASED   
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY   
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PH, AND MOST OF THE SOUTH AND ROLLING   
PLAINS. SOCIAL MEDIA AND WEBCAM IMAGES HAVE SHOWN A VARIETY OF   
PRECIPITATION-TYPES, WITH THE DOMINANT TWO BEING A RAIN-SNOW MIX;   
AND IT APPEARS THAT SLEET WAS MORE-LOCALIZED TO THE BELT OF MOIST,   
ISENTROPIC ASCENT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC LEAF VERSUS THE   
DEFORMATION BANDING THAT IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR   
SOUTHERN TX PH. REGARDLESS, A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW REMAINS   
FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AS THE RATE OF DIABATIC COOLING   
ACCELERATES AFTER SUNSET.  
  
AT THE SURFACE, THE POLAR COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL   
AND SOUTHWESTERN TX, AND BENDS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SPINE OF THE   
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AN INVERTED, POST-FRONTAL TROUGH BRANCHES   
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW NEAR BAZ, WHICH HAS   
MAINTAINED THE FETCH OF DIFLUENT, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA.   
THE SURFACE RIDGE WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL KS, AND WILL CONTINUE   
TO ROTATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-HOURS. PRESSURE TENDENCIES HAVE   
SINCE NEUTRALIZED FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, BUT THE   
LEEWARD GRADIENT AS THE SURFACE HIGH ROTATES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT   
PLAINS BENEATH THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL KEEP WINDS SLIGHTLY   
ELEVATED HEADING INTO TONIGHT WHILE BACKING NORTHWESTWARD. HIGH   
TEMPERATURES WERE TWEAKED TO ALIGN WITH OBSERVATIONS ON METAR AND   
MESONET DATA, AND THE ONGOING SNOW/SLEET/RAIN HAS FACILITATED ENOUGH   
WET-BULB (EVAPORATIVE) COOLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN   
TX PH TO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR FREEZING AS OF 1918Z.  
  
THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS IT PASSES OVER THE REGION   
TONIGHT WHILE MAINTAINING ITS POSITIVE TILT. THE 300 MB LOW SHOULD   
ONCE AGAIN BECOME OPEN AS IT EMERGES OVER CENTRAL NORTH TEXAS, AS A   
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTERIOR FURTHER   
AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED PV ANOMALY EMBEDDED WITHIN A   
PARTICULARLY INTENSE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN   
PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT VERTICALLY-STACKED DUE TO THE   
MISALIGNMENT OF THE SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS RELATIVE TO   
THE MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL VORTEX. AS THE DEFORMATION BANDS CONTINUE TO   
EVOLVE, WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ATTAINING A NORTHWESTWARD   
TRAJECTORY, THE TRANSLATIONAL MOVEMENT OF THE BANDS WILL BE TOWARDS   
THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 12+ HOURS. THEREFORE, THE PROGRESSIVE   
MOVEMENT OF THE BANDS, DESPITE SATURATION OF THE COLUMNS ASCENDING   
INTO THE MID-LEVELS, WHICH HAS, AND WILL CONTINUE, TO FAVOR THE   
FORMATION OF DENDRITIC CRYSTALS, WILL TEMPER A MORE-SIGNIFICANT   
SNOWFALL EVENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PH AND PORTIONS OF THE   
NORTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS. (DENDRITES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON   
SOCIAL MEDIA AND WEBCAM STREAMS.)   
  
THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A SHARP   
GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL, AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN ACCUMULATIONS   
GREATER THAN ONE-INCH ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PH AND INTO THE   
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS, WHICH IS WHERE THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER   
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A WIDE SWATH OF AT LEAST 1" IS FORECAST TO   
OCCUR ACROSS THOSE LOCALES, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 4"   
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA, AS MENTIONED IN THE   
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE   
EDGE OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT, WHERE LOCALIZED EFFECTS FROM UPSLOPE   
FLOW/ADIABATIC EXPANSION FURTHER ENHANCE THE RATE OF DIABATIC   
COOLING. AN ADDITIONAL EXTENSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY   
BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES, AND PRECIPITATION WILL   
COME TO AN END ACROSS ALL AREAS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. RAPID IMPROVEMENTS   
WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AS CONFLUENT FLOW ADVECTS OVER   
THE REGION AND THE SURFACE HIGH ROTATES INTO CENTRAL TX. HIGH   
TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW MAY NEED ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS SOME LOCALES   
WITH A SNOWPACK THAT IS A FEW INCHES DEEP. OTHERWISE, SUNNY AND MILD   
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE TOMORROW, WITH LIGHT WINDS   
BECOMING NORTH ONCE AGAIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. SNOW   
WILL MELT QUICKLY TOMORROW DUE TO FULL INSOLATION AND THE RAPIDLY   
INCREASING SZA AS THE VERNAL EQUINOX NEARS.  
  
SINCAVAGE  
  
  
   
LONG TERM  
  
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 155 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025  
  
THE FORECAST WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST   
PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AND WILL DOMINATE   
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL HELP WARM HIGHS INTO THE 70S AND 80S BY   
TUESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FA FROM THE WEST   
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE QUICKLY PASSING TO OUR EAST EARLY   
THURSDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY DRY IN TERMS OF   
PRECIP, IT WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION ALONG   
WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER AREA WIDE. A   
STRONGER, MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AT THE   
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON FRIDAY. WHILE IT IS STILL JUST UNDER A   
WEEK OUT, EXTREMELY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING LIKELY. MEX   
GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING SUSTAINED WINDS AT OR OVER 40 KNOTS AREA   
WIDE FRIDAY. THE WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS WILL ALSO DROP RH   
INTO THE TEENS TO NEAR SINGLE DIGITS, LEADING TO CRITICAL TO EXTREME   
FIRE WEATHER DANGER.  
  
  
   
AVIATION  
  
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025  
  
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MAIN INTACT AT KCDS AND  
KPVW TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING AS PRECIPITATION TYPE  
TRANSITIONS FROM A RAIN-SNOW MIX TO MOSTLY SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN BACK TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHTS AS   
WE SEE THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT.  
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KLBB THROUGH MIDNIGHT, BUT   
WE MAY SEE CIGS BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR OVER   
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE EDGE OF CLOUD DECK INCHES CLOSER.  
  
  
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR   
TXZ021>026-029-030.  
  
  
  
  
  
SHORT TERM...09  
LONG TERM....51  
AVIATION...12  
 
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