627
FXUS64 KLUB 130858
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
358 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2025
- A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING EXTREMELY STRONG WEST WINDS,
BLOWING DUST, AND CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.
- A HIGH WIND WARNING AND A RED FLAG WARNING ARE BOTH IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.
- WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON, AND A RED FLAG WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS TODAY.
- AFTER A COOLER WEEKEND, WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2025
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE QUICKLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD AHEAD OF DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OFF
THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST LATER TODAY, WITH
DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKING ITS PLACE WITH THE
RESULTING LEE SURFACE TROUGHING BRINGING ANOTHER WARM AND SOLIDLY
BREEZY DAY TO WEST TEXAS TODAY. THE STRONGEST SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS, WITH MORE MODEST SURFACE FLOW ELSEWHERE. CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE AN APPEARANCE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RED FLAG
WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS; SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS. REGARDING TEMPERATURES TODAY, DRY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S
DESPITE A THICKENING LAYER OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. TONIGHT, THE
INGREDIENTS FOR OUR MUCH ANTICIPATED HIGH WIND EVENT WILL BEGIN TO
COME TOGETHER AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
CA COAST RAPIDLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD, ACQUIRING A NEGATIVE TILT AS
IT PASSES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS THAT WAS ALREADY PRESENT IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
CONSEQUENTLY BEGIN TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
STRENGTHENING IN TURN. OVERALL, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
SOLIDLY BREEZY TERRITORY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA,
RESULTING IN FAIRLY MILD LOWS. THE MOST INTENSE WINDS WILL THEN TAKE
SHAPE FRIDAY MORNING, AS DISCUSSED BELOW.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2025
AN IMPACTFUL HIGH WIND EVENT AND DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS A POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITS OVERHEAD. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE PARENT WEATHER SYSTEM,
DEPICTING A COMPACT MIDLEVEL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
BROADER NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER NE NM NEAR SUNRISE. THIS LOW
IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
KS BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS EVOLUTION WILL PLACE A
~120-130KT 500MB JET STREAK DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
WIND MAXIMA OF 70KT AT 700MB AND 60KT AT 850MB ALSO PROGGED TO
POSITION OVERHEAD. THE FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF SUCH WELL-DEFINED
LOW/MID LEVEL JET STREAKS IN ADDITION TO THE REMARKABLE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
THE RAPID ONSET OF HIGH WINDS AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. WITH THE
SURFACE LOW OVER SW KS DEEPENING TO AN INCREDIBLE ~975MB BY EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
MUCH OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND
GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH ON FRIDAY GIVEN AN EXTRAORDINARILY STRONG
PROGGED 700MB HEIGHT GRADIENT AS HIGH AS 120M PER 200NM, WHICH IS
AN ESSENTIALLY OFF THE CHARTS INDICATION OF EXTREMELY STRONG WIND
GUSTS. GIVEN THE OVERALL MODEL CONSISTENCY AND THE PRESENCE OF SO
MANY CONFIRMING SIGNALS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE THE
HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA, WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM CDT ON FRIDAY.
ALSO OF NOTE, WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST WITH SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FRIDAY AND A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION, WITH MORE
DETAILS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
BY FRIDAY EVENING, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW HIGH WIND
CRITERIA RELATIVELY QUICKLY AS THE SURFACE LOW QUICKLY PULLS EVEN
FURTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST AND FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS. STILL, IT WILL
REMAIN SOLIDLY BREEZY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LINGERS OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL THEN TAKE SHAPE ON SATURDAY BEHIND A MODIFIED COLD
FRONT, WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING THE LOW/MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE WILL
MOISTEN NOTABLY AS A TRAILING UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD.
THE ASSOCIATED FORCING MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW TX PANHANDLE, AND WILL
MAINTAIN LOW MENTIONABLE POPS THERE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS LARGE SCALE RIDGING
BUILDS IN ALOFT, BUT A RETURN TO STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
WILL BRING A RESURGENCE OF BREEZY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS NEXT
WEEK. DOWNSLOPING SW WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S AND 80S, ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. TUESDAY WILL BE THE WINDIER DAY OF THE TWO, HOWEVER
EVEN IF THE LOWEST MODEL CENTRAL PRESSURE WERE TO VERIFY (CURRENTLY
GFS AT ~990 MB), THIS WOULD NOT YIELD NEARLY AS STRONG OF WINDS AS
EXPECTED FRIDAY. RELATIVE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN THE WAKE
OF THIS LOW BY NEXT WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD AGAIN BRING NORTHERLY
WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2025
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. MODEST WEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY AT LBB, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKENING
AFTER SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2025
BREEZY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY RESULTING IN ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. THE STRONGEST
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL
FOCUS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK TODAY, WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH RH VALUES AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT TO RESULT IN RFTI
VALUES OF 3 TO 4. GIVEN THAT THIS IS ALSO THE REGION WITH THE
DRIEST FUELS, HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK VALID FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT TODAY. FARTHER TO THE NORTH
AND EAST, WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT WEAKER WHICH WILL RESULT IN RFTI
VALUES OF 1 TO 2. A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS THEREFORE
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE ROLLING
PLAINS, ALSO VALID FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT TODAY. TONIGHT, WINDS
WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH FAIRLY POOR RH RECOVERY MAINLY
IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE
OUT OF THE WEST BEFORE SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.
CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY, AND A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA VALID FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM CDT FRIDAY. VERY STRONG WEST
WINDS SUSTAINED FROM 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH AND MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 8 TO 15
PERCENT RANGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RFTI VALUES OF 5 TO 7,
WITH LOCALIZED VALUES OF 8 TO 9 ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. THE HIGHEST RFTI VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE DRIEST FUELS OVER THESE SOUTHERN
ZONES, AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY AT TIMES ON FRIDAY.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ021>044.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ021>044.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ027>029-033>036-039>042.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30/19
AVIATION...30
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