806
FXUS64 KLUB 011645
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1145 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER AND DRIER TODAY FOLLOWED BY CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT
STORMS.
- STORM CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY AND STORM CHANCES RETURNING
SUNDAY TO THE WEST OF I-27.
- CHANCES ARE INCREASING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOODING EVENT
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CAPROCK AND ROLLING PLAINS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
HEIGHTS RISES WERE UNDERWAY EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE HEELS OF
YESTERDAY'S UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE OZARKS. SWIFT WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT UNDERGOES LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH TONIGHT, YET THE LOW
LEVELS WILL SEE MORE VARIABILITY IN THE FORM OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROGGED TO STALL AND BISECT THE FORECAST
AREA LATER THIS MORNING FROM W-E. COOL NE WINDS BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WITH MILD SOUTHERLIES ELSEWHERE LOOK SUPPORTIVE OF A 10
DEGREE CONTRAST IN HIGH TEMPS FROM N-S TODAY. AS COOL WINDS VEER
EASTERLY LATER TODAY, MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FOCUS OVER THE RATON
MESA WHERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THIS CONVECTION FOCUSES WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA, WE
EXPECT A NOCTURNAL MCS TO ENSUE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A RESPECTABLE THETA-E RIDGE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1500
J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE IN OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES TONIGHT SUPPORTIVE OF THE GREATEST POPS PROVIDED EITHER THE
MCS PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST INTO THIS AREA OR OUTFLOW FROM A MORE
NORTHERLY MCS TRACK IMPINGES ON THIS AXIS AND FOCUSES NEW
CONVECTION. EITHER SOLUTION HOLDS A RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS
PARTICULARLY IN THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE, WITH A DIMINISHING THREAT
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE ADVANCING OUTFLOW OWING TO MORE FORMIDABLE
CIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. NBM POPS WERE MASSAGED OVERNIGHT TO GIVE MORE
CREDENCE TO RECENT CAMS FAVORING A MORE NORTHERLY MCS TRACK ALONG
AND NORTH OF I40.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
A DECAYING MCS WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND ONTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK, WITH THE MCS FORECAST TO
PROPAGATE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. POPS WERE
REMOVED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MOST OF THE CWA, LESS THE EAST
AND SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE RESIDUAL EML MAY STILL
SUPPORT LIGHTNING. LOW-LEVEL STRATUS WILL LINGER IN WAKE OF THE MCS,
WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE COMBINATION
OF THE OVERCAST AND BRISK, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF A COOL, STABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO BREACH 70 DEGREES AREA-WIDE FRIDAY, WITH FAIR WEATHER
FORECAST HEADING INTO SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY, AS WINDS VEER EAST-TO-SOUTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING
THE DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE INTO CENTRAL OK.
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AS THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SPLIT AND
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED. ALL INDICATIONS POINTING TOWARDS AN OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER 48, WITH MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS
NEAR 70 KT AND 100 KT, RESPECTIVELY, ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
WESTERN LOW THAT SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
RETURN FLOW WILL HAVE ESTABLISHED BY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
LEEWARD PRESSURE FALLS GENERATED BY THE WESTERN LOW, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RAMPING UP TO 15-25 MPH. WAA-INDUCED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY MAY CLIP THE WESTERN ZONES
EARLY SUNDAY, WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS TO STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS THE CLOSED LOW, WHICH IS PREDICTED TO BE EXPANSIVE IN
SIZE, ROTATES INTO AZ. THE NET RESULT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE 500 MB AND 300-200 MB JET STREAKS EMERGING OVER W TX ATOP AN
INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET, CAUSING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND SHARPLY DIFLUENT FLOW OVERSPREADING THE
REGION HEADING INTO MONDAY.
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A HEAVY RAIN EVENT MATERIALIZING
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CWA, AS ALL GLOBAL NWP GUIDANCE ARE IN
STRONG AGREEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW WOBBLING TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. NAEFS AND ENS ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE IVT VALUES OF
APPROXIMATELY 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION, WITH A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF THE
ADVECTION OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH IVT AND PWAT VALUES AMIDST THE INTENSE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE REGION. POPS GENERATED BY THE NBM FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE HIGH, AND HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED DUE TO THE
SIGNIFICANT AGREEMENT AMONG ALL GLOBAL NWP SUITES IN THE EVOLUTION
OF THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE STORM TOTAL QPF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND IT IS TOO SOON
TO OUTLINE ANY SPECIFIC MESOSCALE DETAILS; HOWEVER, THE VERTICAL
DEPTH TO THE ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE BENEATH THE EJECTION OF
MULTIPLE VORTICITY LOBES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INTENSE FLOW IN THE
CLOUD-BEARING LAYER YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE, BUT
IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT NEXT
WEEK WILL BE MORE TOP-HEAVY TOWARDS FLOODING. A RARE DAY-5 (MONDAY)
SLIGHT RISK ERO HAS BEEN DELINEATED FOR MOST OF THE CWA AFTER
INTERNAL COORDINATION WITH WPC. THE OMEGA BLOCK IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY ERODE BY MID-WEEK, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SINCAVAGE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING MVFR AT ALL SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE
18Z TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS SAME
TIME FRAME WILL OCCUR AT KCDS, WITH LESSER CHANCES (NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF) AT KLBB AND KPVW.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...19
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