016
FXUS64 KLUB 020522
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1222 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- OVERNIGHT STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
FAR SE PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
- STORM CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY AND STORM CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE REGION MONDAY.
- CHANCES ARE INCREASING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOODING EVENT
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CAPROCK AND ROLLING PLAINS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING TO GIVE US A WELCOME BREAK FROM ACTIVE
WEATHER TODAY. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S FOR THE
LUBBOCK AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT, BRINGING INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT-3AM, HOWEVER THE TROUGH IS MORE SHALLOW OVER
OUR AREA AND WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING AND THE
OVERNIGHT TIMING WILL LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. THUS,
OVERALL THE SEVERE CONCERNS ARE GENERALLY LIMITED, HOWEVER A FEW
STORMS STILL MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CAMS REMAIN
MOSTLY UNEXCITED AND HIGHEST CHANCES OF ANY STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS
THE FAR SE PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
A LULL IN ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS
UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. THE OVERHEAD RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM TO NEAR, BUT STILL BELOW, SEASONAL AVERAGE. FOCUS CONTINUES ON
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRINGING HEAVY
RAINFALL/SEVERE STORMS BACK TO THE REGION. AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND BEFORE DRIFTING TO
THE FOUR CORNERS BY MONDAY. LEE TROUGHING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL HELP RETURN RICH SURFACE MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THERE STILL
CONTINUES TO BE VARIABILITY IN THE TIMING OF CONVECTION AND IS
RESULTING FROM UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE UPPER LOW.
MODELS ARE NOW HINTING AT CONVECTION BEING DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A DRYLINE DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. UNLIKE
MANY OF THE PREVIOUS DRYLINES, THERE WILL BE AMBLE UPPER LIFT TO
HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL ALSO HAVE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
LIFT. UNCERTAINTY GROWS BEYOND TUESDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES AS MODELS
DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION, THERE IS HIGHER CERTAINTY
THAT TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE 60S AND 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE MADE THEIR WAY INTO KLBB AND KPVW. LOW CEILINGS
AT BOTH TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT KCDS BUT CEILING SHOULD
REMAIN IFR CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THAT SHOULD REMAIN AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
NEAR KCDS AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
WHICH COULD RESULT IS SOME LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...10
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