863
FXUS64 KLUB 021036
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
536 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM CHANCES CONTINUE UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING.
- WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING REMAIN A CONCERN FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR REGION THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE EITHER WEAKENED OR MOVED
OUT OUT THE CWA. STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES BEING OFF THE CAPROCK. A COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND LOW STRATUS IN ITS WAKE AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WHILE A
REX BLOCK PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. DUE TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM TO
BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION BY THIS
EVENING ALLOWING LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO REACH THE UPPER 30S
TO UPPER 40S. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SHIFT FROM THE EAST
AS A SURFACE RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
THE EXTENDED REMAINS RIPE WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE AND
FAVORABLE LIFT MOST DAYS. THIS SETUP LOOKS TO HIT ITS STRIDE FROM
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY ON THE HEELS OF A QUIET WEEKEND UNDER
LONGWAVE RIDGING AND AN OMEGA BLOCK IN NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. A
CUTOFF LOW WILL BE CRAWLING OUR WAY EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE SPREADING A STRONGLY DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW
OVERHEAD. ADD TO THIS A ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM THE
BASE OF THE LOW BY MONDAY NIGHT AND LIFT WILL ONLY DEEPEN AS THE
LOW BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE DETAILS, SO WHEN COMBINED A MOIST
CONVEYOR EMANATING FROM THE GULF AND PWATS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES THE
STAGE IS SET FOR HEAVY RAIN. ALTHOUGH THESE PWATS ARE NOT
EXCESSIVELY HIGH, THE LONG RESIDENCE TIME OF ASCENT FROM MONDAY
UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY MORNING POSES
A LEGITIMATE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. EVEN
THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AREN'T PARTICULARLY STEEP, SEVERE
CONVECTION HAS AN ANNOYING TENDENCY OF SNEAKING INTO THESE SETUPS
AND THIS IS NO EXCEPTION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN TALL AND SKINNY
CAPE PROFILES OVERLAP WITH FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50
KNOTS. POPS PEAK FROM 80-90 MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH KICKS THROUGH THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A MARKED
DECLINE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE DEEPENS. FEEL
WIDESPREAD 1-3" RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE FROM MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY IN THIS DEEPLY MERIDIONAL AND STRONGLY-FORCED
PATTERN.
MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS
LIFTS THIS TO OUR NORTH (DRIER) WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT JUST TO OUR
WEST (WETTER) THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OPTED TO ROLL WITH NBM'S 20-40 POPS
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AS EVEN DIURNAL INSTABILITY IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS LOW COULD SPARK ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RESIDE 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK IN THIS MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
A LATER OF LOW STRATUS SITS OVER ALL THREE TAF SITES HOWEVER,
CEILINGS REMAIN VFR CONDITIONS. THIS LAYER OF LOW STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR KCDS AT THE MOMENT. CHANCES FOR
STORMS OFF THE CAPROCK CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...10
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