028
FXUS64 KLUB 030513
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1213 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- BENIGN WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING.
- WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING REMAIN A CONCERN FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
A BREAK IN THE CONVECTIVE WEATHER WILL FINALLY OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ONE FINAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL REINFORCE THE COLD FRONT FROM YESTERDAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
MOVE FROM KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR LIGHT
WINDS AND THEREFORE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST WE HAVE SEEN SINCE MID-APRIL RANGING
FROM THE 30S IN THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO 40S ELSEWHERE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH CLOSE BEHIND THE RIDGE. HOWEVER, THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL BE TOO FAR TO THE WEST TO AFFECT THE REGION AND WILL MOSTLY
AFFECT NEW MEXICO.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
QUIET CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY SHOULD ROUND OUT AN OVERALL PLEASANT
WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S. ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE VERY WET PATTERN
DEVELOPING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST US WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG SE SURFACE FLOW TO
ALLOW FOR A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. A SHORTWAVE OUT
AHEAD OF IT WILL BRING THE FIRST ROUND OF RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, WITH A MORE POTENT WAVE PROPAGATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
A STRONGER SECOND ROUND LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION/FORCING WILL BE GENERALLY OFF THE CAPROCK AND THIS IS
SUBSEQUENTLY WHERE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED. WHILE UNCERTAINTY
STILL REMAINS AS THE EVENT IS 2-4 DAYS OUT, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, AGAIN WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO THE EAST.
MODEL/ENSEMBLE AVERAGES IN THE LUBBOCK AREA ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 1.5
INCHES. THIS WILL BE FINE-TUNED AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER, SO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE LATEST FORECAST FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO OUTDOOR PLANS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL STALL OVER THE ROCKIES AND BEGIN
TO DISSIPATE FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD. LINGERING MOISTURE AND A NUMBER
OF WEAK WAVES MERITED LEAVING MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE LATEST
FORECAST. GENERALLY NNE WINDS AS WELL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 70 THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...10
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