216
FXUS64 KLUB 031710
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1210 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING BY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
- COOL NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
THE BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH EAST. PRECEDING THE TROUGH, A
RIDGE WILL TRACK IN AND SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A LOW
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A SEPARATE LOW
FOLLOWING BEHIND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AS A SURFACE HIGH SETS UP
TO THE EAST OF THE FA. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF
RADIATIVE COOLING LOWERING TEMPERATURES TO THE 40S OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
AFTER A MOSTLY QUIET SUNDAY, THE BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS
WHAT A REGIONAL HEAVY RAIN EPISODE WITH FLOODING CONCERNS ON
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW. INCREASINGLY MOIST
SE WINDS WILL COMMENCE ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING TODAY'S COOL SURFACE
RIDGING. ALOFT, LONGWAVE RIDGING INITIALLY OVER THE CWA EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN DEPARTING AHEAD OF INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC
AND MOIST SW FLOW WELL DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LOW OVER SOCAL. RAW
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS LOW'S SLOW
EASTWARD TRACK FROM THE FOUR CORNERS ON MONDAY TO KANSAS BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS CONFIDENCE EXTENDS TO A HEFTY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON
MONDAY NIGHT RESPONSIBLE FOR A RARE SURFACE CYCLONE THAT TRACKS
FROM THE WESTERN TRANS-PECOS TO THE ROLLING PLAINS BY TUESDAY
MORNING WHILE ALSO BEING THE MAIN KICKER FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN
EVENT OVERNIGHT BEFORE ITS EXODUS ON TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE PWATS
ARE NOT OFF THE CHARTS BY ANY MEANS (0.33" TO 0.6" ABOVE NORMAL),
THE MAGNITUDE OF LIFT AND ITS EXTENDED DURATION ARE MORE
IMPRESSIVE AS THE UPPER LOW GROWS NEGATIVELY TILTED BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND SPREADS STRONGLY DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW WITH A COUPLED JET
ATOP THE FORECAST AREA. SO THE STAGE LOOKS SET FOR A SIZABLE RAIN
EVENT WITH FLOODING CERTAINLY ON THE TABLE GIVEN LAST WEEK'S
HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING. IT'S STILL A BIT EARLY FOR A FLOOD
WATCH BUT THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE IN LATER FORECASTS. EVEN BEFORE
THE HEADLINING ACT MONDAY NIGHT, AN OPENING ACT FEATURING SEVERE
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS IS ON THE TICKET FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS TIED TO A HEALTHY
PLUME OF MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT STREAMING NW FROM AN OPEN GULF
THAT SHOULD FUEL ON/OFF ELEVATED STORMS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED
BY SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DECENT CAPE AND
STRONG SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. CURRENT INDICATIONS
SUGGEST THIS SEVERE THREAT IS GREATEST ACROSS OUR S-SW ZONES
CLOSER TO A SURFACE TRIPLE POINT THAT TRACKS INTO OUR AREA MONDAY
NIGHT.
NBM'S POPS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK TOO
GENEROUS GIVEN INCREASINGLY DRIER WESTERLY FLOW / DRY SLOTTING
FOLLOWING MONDAY NIGHT'S VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW, SO POPS WERE DRAGGED LOWER ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES FARTHEST FROM THE UPPER LOW LIFTING OVER THE OK PANHANDLE.
AS THE UPPER LOW STALLS OVER KS AND WOBBLES TO CENTRAL OK BY
MIDWEEK, LOW POPS REMAIN IN THE CARDS AREA WIDE UNDER UNSETTLED
NNW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SAID LOW. DEPRESSED HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
VFR IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...01
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