593
FXUS64 KLUB 031908
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
208 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.
- THIS IS ALSO A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
- IT WILL BE COOL FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT LOOKING TO BE LOW.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN A BRIEF PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER AGAIN
AS A PSEUDO OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF LATER TODAY AS IT CONTINUES TO SLIDE
DOWN OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. IT WILL THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY, THE REGION WILL BE UNDER
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS RESULTING IN HEIGHT RISES. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON,
HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH THE
RIDGE SLIDING TO THE EAST. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL EDGE INTO THE
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT MOST LIFT WILL REMAIN IN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, WITH THE SYSTEM STILL WELL TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION, BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DIRECTED ALL THE
WAY TO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE, ANY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE WELL INTO NEW MEXICO. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST, MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE VERY WEAK. THE
COLD FRONT FROM LATE THURSDAY HAS PUSHED INTO THE GULF INHIBITING
ANY STRONG MOISTURE RETURN AT THE MOMENT. A RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E
VALUES WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO FAR
WEST TEXAS AND NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL BE THE
FAVORED LOCATION OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY REACHING
THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE PRIOR TO 00Z. SURFACE BASED PARCELS
WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED IN WEST TEXAS OUTSIDE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE.
BUT AREAS IN NEW MEXICO WILL BECOME UNCAPPED BY MID-AFTERNOON. AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AT THIS
TIME WITH THE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WELL TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE THEREFORE BE RELATIVELY WEAK ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND 30-40 KTS OF SERLY FLOW
ON THE LLJ MAY MAINTAIN ANY OF THE ACTIVITY IN VICINITY OF THE
TX/NM STATE LINE AS IT MOVES EAST INTO WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS SUNDAY
EVENING. NOW THAT WE ARE GETTING INTO THE RANGE OF THE CAMS, WE
ARE STILL SEEING A LITTLE BETTER INDICATION THAT THIS ACTIVITY,
PERHAPS A SMALL LINE OF STORMS, MAY MOVE EASTWARD BEFORE
GRADUALLY DYING OUT NEAR THE I-27/US-87 CORRIDOR, SO WE'VE
EXPANDED POPS FARTHER EAST THAN THE NBM TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WE
MAY SEE A LULL IN THE ACTION SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
EXITING SHORTWAVE, BUT SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS IS
LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWER AND OCCASIONAL ELEVATED T-STORM
ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING AS LARGE-
SCALE ASCENT APPROACHES IN ADVANCE OF A MUCH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE/VORT LOBE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE INCREASINGLY MOIST, AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE CLOUDY
SKIES, INSTABILITY MAY PROVE TO BE ON THE MODEST SIDE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. HOWEVER, THE STRONG FORCING AND WIND SHEAR SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MULTICELLS AND
SUPERCELLS AND A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY,
PERHAPS ENHANCED BY SOME PARTIAL CLEARING, FOCUSED MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT, PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 1 TO
1.5 INCHES, AND ROBUST RAINFALL RATES WITH THE EXPECTED UPSCALE GROWTH
OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS INTO A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MONDAY
EVENING AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME FLASH FLOODING. QPF GUIDANCE HAS PERHAPS EDGED BACK FROM
ITS PEAK, BUT IS STILL IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH A GOOD BET FOR SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN MORE
FOCUSED SWATHS. WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE, THE HEAVIEST RAIN
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO STRETCH FROM THE I-27/US-87 CORRIDOR EAST
THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT PERHAPS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY
TUESDAY DUE TO THEIR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH NM.
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS DRIER, WESTERLY FLOW PUNCHES IN. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAST THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER
LOW WILL NOT BE MOVING QUICKLY. IT WILL ALSO REMAIN COOL ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY...NAMELY 60S TO LOWER
70S.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, BUT
TROUGHING ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER WEST TEXAS WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS AREA. THIS WILL ALSO SEND A
COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE NBM MAINTAINS SOME 20-40
PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT AT THIS TIME
DEVELOPING LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST DUE TO MEAGER
INSTABILITY.
AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH SLOWLY MEANDERS S-SE INTO THE SRN MS VLY
THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY, N-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BRING ONE OR
MORE REINFORCING SURGES OF COOL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
WILL SLOWLY MODERATE, BUT SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN STUCK IN THE 70S
FOR THIS PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST. A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY A DRY
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
VFR IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
LUBBOCK TX 50 74 53 68 / 0 10 40 90
CHILDRESS TX 48 74 52 64 / 0 0 10 70
BROWNFIELD TX 48 76 53 73 / 0 10 40 80
LEVELLAND TX 48 75 51 70 / 0 10 50 80
PLAINVIEW TX 45 72 48 62 / 0 10 40 90
FRIONA TX 45 72 47 66 / 0 20 70 90
TAHOKA TX 48 75 53 70 / 0 10 40 80
ASPERMONT TX 48 77 54 67 / 0 0 20 80
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...01
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page