392
FXUS64 KLUB 041732
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER
THIS EVENING AND PUSH EAST.
- SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.
- WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING LIKELY MONDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
- COOL ALL WEEK WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA. AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN HAS SET UP OVER CONUS WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER QUIET DURING THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
MOVE EAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE DAY PUSHING THE
RIDGE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SHIFTING WINDS ALOFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WE WILL SEE SOME MOISTURE RETURN TO THE REGION AS
SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM AND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE I.E. BETTER LIFT ALOFT WILL BE OVER NEW
MEXICO, A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL EXPECTED TO
FORM NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
AND PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA BEFORE DYING BEFORE OR NEAR THE
I-27 CORRIDOR. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE CHANCE TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT BEFORE THE REAL SHOW OF WIDESPREAD RAIN
BEGINS MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
REGION WIDE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS
AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FILL IN THIS EVENING AND REMAIN
OVERNIGHT HINDERING RADIATIVE COOLING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THE WORKWEEK GETS OFF TO A VERY ACTIVE START AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS
UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS THAT BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED BY MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY MORNING OPENS WITH AN ELEVATED
PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AHEAD OF A H7 SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SW FLOW. PWATS WITHIN THIS PLUME
SPIKE TO AROUND 1" BEFORE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE ENSUES BY MIDDAY
AND GARNERS A DOWNTURN IN SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. ATTENTION BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON TURNS TO
EASTERN NM SOUTH TO THE WESTERN TRANS-PECOS WHERE A SHARP DRYLINE
IS PROGGED TO EMERGE NORTH OF A SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT.
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE GIVEN VERY MODEST CIN. STRONG 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 50-60 KNOTS WITH SUFFICIENT SBCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL
BE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL THE GREATEST THREAT
AS THEY SPREAD EAST AND OVER THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS COULD
PROVE QUITE NARROW AND CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE DRYLINE WHICH
WOULD LIMIT SEVERE STORM LONGEVITY. EVEN SO, ELEVATED CAPE BY THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT GROWS MARKEDLY NORTH OF THE ADVANCING WARM
FRONT AS A STRONG SE LLJ ADVECTS GREATER GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION UNDERNEATH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. THIS LLJ RESIDES BELOW A
STRONGLY DIFLUENT UPPER JET ALL THE WHILE THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE
UPPER RIO GRANDE OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTS THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM
FRONT NORTH INTO OUR FAR S-SE COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS AMPLE
AND PROTRACTED ROUND OF LIFT IS WHAT WILL DRIVE THE THREAT FOR
TRAINING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH A RISK FOR FLOODING BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TUESDAY MORNING AND WE SLOWLY DRY OUT.
WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE AS THERE IS STILL
AMPLE SPREAD IN WHERE THE TRAINING CONVECTION SETS UP. SHOULD THE
WARM FRONT MAKE GREATER STRIDES INTO OUR CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT,
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD GROW TO INCLUDE QLCS MODES WITH
POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY, THE MAIN SHIELD OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE CWA AHEAD OF DEEP DRY SLOTTING
AND HEFTY SUBSIDENCE. NBM'S POPS ARE LAGGING THIS SCENARIO QUITE
A BIT, SO AFTERNOON POPS WERE SCALED MUCH LOWER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW WOBBLES OVER
KS AND OK FROM TUE-THU, WE CAN'T RULE OUT DAILY CHANCES FOR AT
LEAST SPOTTY SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS ALTHOUGH EVEN THESE
PROSPECTS ARE LOOKING MORE GRIM ON THE LATEST MODELS AS A STABLE
LAYER OVERSPREADS ALL BUT OUR FAR NE ZONES. THE UPPER LOW WILL
UNDERGO CONSIDERABLE DECAY BY MID/LATE WEEK WHILE DRIFTING EVEN
FARTHER TO OUR EAST, SO THIS FAVORS MOSTLY DRY BUT CONTINUED COOL
CONDITIONS UNDER STABLE NW FLOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
A COMPLICATED TAF IS IN PLAY FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES OF REACHING KLBB OR KPVW THIS EVENING ARE
LOW. AFTERWARDS, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING TO ALL TAF SITES. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS UNCERTAIN
AT THE MOMENT, SO THUNDER MENTION HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE TAF.
LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE PRECIPITATION WITH MVFR CIGS
MOST LIKELY.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...01
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