774
FXUS64 KLUB 051634 AAA
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1134 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
- FOLLOWING A MORNING ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS, A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME FLOODING IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
- STORM CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT IS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE IS IN SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM WAS STILL SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA
THIS MORNING. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WAS STILL RIPPING OVERHEAD
CREATING THE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER FAR WEST TEXAS. A STRONG DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS SURFACE
CYCLONE WITH DRY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE AND BACKED
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE. STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL EXIST ON THIS LOW LEVEL FEATURE EXPECTED ROUGHLY FROM LEA
COUNTY NEW MEXICO SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE SURFACE CYCLONE AND THEN
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BIG BEND REGION. WITH THE EXPECTED CLEARING OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA, A VERY NARROW LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE. THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL ALSO
BRING COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THEREFORE VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES OVER TOP THE MOIST NEAR SURFACE LAYER. DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS NARROW RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E VALUES
CREATING STRONG INSTABILITY VALUES AROUND 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME VERY WEAK CAPPING THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE EXTREME STRENGTH OF THE LIFT MOVING OVERHEAD, THIS CAP
WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE EASILY OVERCOME. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMUMS
APPROACHING THE REGION. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE,
VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. AS BEEN THE THEME OF THIS DISCUSSION, A
NARROW THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH SUPERCELLS AS WELL. THE
0-3KM HELICITY VALUES WILL RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK FURTHER AND INCREASE. THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPING UP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELL IN THE
WARMER CONDITIONS. ONCE SUPERCELLS MOVE INTO THE COOLER AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS, THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO SUSTAIN THEIR INTENSITY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CAPTURED A HEALTHY BOWLING-BALL LOW
CHURNING OVER PHOENIX THIS MORNING WITH A BROAD CONVEYOR OF MOIST
ASCENT ARCING E-SE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE TX PANHANDLE. IN THE
LOW LEVELS, A NICE FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE AND STRATUS WAS STREAMING
NW FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY UP TO EASTERN NM. THIS LAYER OF
MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL DEEPEN IN THE COMING HOURS AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OBSERVED ON SATELLITE FROM TCC TO GNC. UPSHOT OF
THIS IS THAT WE EXPECT ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS TO EXPAND
OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SW TX PANHANDLE THROUGH 7 AM BEFORE
SHIFTING NORTHEAST BY LATE MORNING. MODELS ARE KEEN ON NEGATIVE
THETA-E ADVECTION FROM 305-310K FOLLOWING THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, SO
ONLY LOW POPS ARE WARRANTED IN ITS WAKE. DESPITE THE TEMPORARY
DRYING ALOFT, THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN ON COOL AND
INCREASINGLY BREEZY ESE UPSLOPE FLOW RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LOW
STRATUS, PATCHY FOG AT TIMES AND A LITTLE DRIZZLE.
AS THE UPPER LOW DRAWS CLOSER THIS AFTERNOON, A DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN
OVER SOUTHEAST NM NORTH OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS. WITH MINIMAL CIN AND STRONG MIXING UPSTREAM OF THE
DRYLINE, IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT SOME SURFACE BASED STORMS TO
ERUPT ALONG THE DRYLINE AND POTENTIALLY SURVIVE THEIR JOURNEY EAST
INTO OUR FAR SW COUNTIES WHERE CIN WOULD BECOME MORE HOSTILE ON COOL
EASTERLIES. HOWEVER, A FEW CAMS ARE KEEN TO ERODE STRATUS OVER A
BROADER CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN, THEN A
GREATER RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE W-SW SOUTH PLAINS AFTER 3 PM. UPPER ASCENT AMPLIFIES CONSIDERABLY
TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COUPLED UPPER AND LOWER JET, STRONGLY
DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT SHOVES THE
UPPER LOW INTO A NEGATIVE TILT STRUCTURE. ADD TO THIS A BLOSSOMING
MOIST AXIS WITH PWATS AROUND 200% OF NORMAL AND THE STAGE IS PRIMED
FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN. THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAIN
IS STILL IN CONFLICT BETWEEN HIGHER RES MODELS WITH SOME CAMS HAVING
TRENDED FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE OVERNIGHT WITH STORMS WHICH WOULD STUNT
RAINFALL TOTALS CONSIDERABLY. OPTED TO KEEP AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH
FOR NOW WHICH RESULTS IN SLIGHTLY LESS RAIN OF 1-2" WITH LOCALLY 3".
WE STILL EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND LARGEST FOOTPRINT OF RAIN TO STRIKE
AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE WANING CONSIDERABLY FROM SW-NE BY DAYBREAK
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
BY EARLY TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED OVER NEW MEXICO AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
BEGAN MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BEING
DRY SLOTTED AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID-WEEK.
ANY STORMS THAT LINGER OR DEVELOP TUESDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. WITH A SUCH A LONG
PERIOD OF RAIN EXPECTED, FLOODING IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE WITH QPF OF 1-2
INCHES AREA WIDE AND SOME LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES.
SPORADIC STORM CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW STALLS OVER KS AND OK. BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EFFECTIVELY PUSHING THE LOW AWAY FROM THE
REGION BRINGING DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EFFECTIVELY KILLING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
BAND OF TSRA OVER LBB THIS HOUR WILL EXIT TO THE NNE SHORTLY AHEAD
OF MVFR CIGS THAT ARE LIKELY TO FALL TO IFR BY 14-15Z AND REMAIN
THIS WAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VERY MOIST AND BREEZY E WINDS WILL LEAD
TO SOME MIST/LIGHT FOG AT PVW AND LBB AT TIMES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. CDS WILL FAIR BETTER THIS MORNING WITH LOW CEILINGS NOT
EXPECTED HERE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THE CONCERN SHIFTS TO STRONG OR SEVERE TS (MAINLY AT LBB)
AHEAD OF A LARGE ROUND OF TS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ021>044.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...93
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