690
FXUS64 KLUB 051849
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
149 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
- A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME FLOODING IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
- LOW STORM CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AND DIMINISH THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT IS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE IS IN SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM WAS STILL SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA
THIS MORNING. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WAS STILL RIPPING OVERHEAD
CREATING THE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER FAR WEST TEXAS. A STRONG DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS SURFACE
CYCLONE WITH DRY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE AND BACKED
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE. STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL EXIST ON THIS LOW LEVEL FEATURE EXPECTED ROUGHLY FROM LEA
COUNTY NEW MEXICO SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE SURFACE CYCLONE AND THEN
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BIG BEND REGION. WITH THE EXPECTED CLEARING OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA, A VERY NARROW LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE. THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL ALSO
BRING COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THEREFORE VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES OVER TOP THE MOIST NEAR SURFACE LAYER. DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS NARROW RIDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E VALUES
CREATING STRONG INSTABILITY VALUES AROUND 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME VERY WEAK CAPPING THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE EXTREME STRENGTH OF THE LIFT MOVING OVERHEAD, THIS CAP
WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE EASILY OVERCOME. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMUMS
APPROACHING THE REGION. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE,
VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. AS BEEN THE THEME OF THIS DISCUSSION, A
NARROW THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH SUPERCELLS AS WELL. THE
0-3KM HELICITY VALUES WILL RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK FURTHER AND INCREASE. THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPING UP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELL IN THE
WARMER CONDITIONS. ONCE SUPERCELLS MOVE INTO THE COOLER AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS, THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO SUSTAIN THEIR INTENSITY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
TONIGHT WILL FEATURE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT AREA WIDE WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL CROSS FROM ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BRINGING WIDESPREAD AND STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVERHEAD. THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE SQUARELY UNDERNEATH THE EXIT
REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS LIFT WILL ACT UPON A
VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 150 AND
175 PERCENT OF NORMAL THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY IS FIRST EXPECTED TO
BLOSSOM IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WEST OF THE INITIAL AFTERNOON
SUPERCELL ACTIVITY AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD AS THE LIFT SPREADS
OVERHEAD. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED, THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THEN EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THIS MAY LIMIT THE
TRAINING POTENTIAL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. NONETHELESS, HEAVY
RAINFALL IS STILL ANTICIPATED WITH THESE STORMS. LIFT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE OVERHEAD AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY BUT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. A DRY SLOT WILL PUNCH INTO THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEN POSSIBLE CLOSE TO THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LOW IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS THE MAIN VORTICITY
LOBE ROTATES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS THE OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES TO
COLLAPSE, WITH THE ATTENDANT JET STREAKS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER WESTERN TX. STORM CHANCES
SHOULD WANE BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY, AS THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TROUGH ADVECTS A WELL-DEFINED BELT OF CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
REGION. POST-FRONTAL MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER, COMBINED WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING, SHOULD GARNER THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOG HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED INTO THE GRIDS WITH THIS PACKAGE, BUT COVERAGE OF FOG MAY
BE OFFSET BY THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS DECK, SO THE
SPATIAL EXTENT OF COVERAGE IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN.
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED-TO-WIDELY-SCATTERED, ELEVATED STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PH AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK AND
ROLLING PLAINS. THE SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO BE LIMITED OTHERWISE DUE
TO A LINGERING OVERCAST, POOR LAPSE RATES, AND A LACK OF CONVERGENCE
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. NBM POPS HAVE BEEN
LOWERED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE (20-PERCENT), BUT WILL REMAIN INTACT
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA, AS ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE ROTATES OVER THE RIO GRANDE RIVER
VALLEY AND EJECTS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS PRIOR TO SUNRISE THURSDAY.
ELEVATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT THE
SEVERE RISK SHOULD BE TEMPERED ALTOGETHER DUE TO THE DWINDLING EML
ATOP AN AIRMASS THAT WILL HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT BY THE PRIOR COLD FRONT.
THE OMEGA BLOCK IS FORECAST TO COLLAPSE ENTIRELY BY THURSDAY, WITH
THE CLOSED LOW DISSOLVING INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AND QUICKLY EJECTING
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NBM POPS WERE FURTHER
TWEAKED FOR THURSDAY, WITH LINGERING STORM CHANCES MAINTAINED ACROSS
THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS, BUT TRENDS ARE BEGINNING TO POINT
TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST AREA-WIDE THURSDAY AS CONFLUENCE INCREASES
ALOFT. THE DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND,
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SINCAVAGE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
A LARGE STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BRING LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO ALL TAF SITES. LOW END MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD INTO THE AREA AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH IN THIS STORM SYSTEM BRINGING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN TO
IMPROVE LATE TUESDAY MORNING, FIRST AT KLBB AND KPVW INTO MVFR
CATEGORY.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ021>044.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...01
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