959
FXUS64 KLUB 070703
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
203 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS OFF THE
CAPROCK THIS MORNING.
- COOL AND SUNNY REST OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK, WITH SOME AREAS
EXPERIENCING DENSE FOG. DENSE FOG SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING VISIBILITY OF 5 MILES OR BETTER.
THEREFORE WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE TIME
BEING AS CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SOON. LOW
STRATUS, HOWEVER, SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL PUSH INTO
OKLAHOMA BY LATE MORNING BEFORE MOVING OVER MISSOURI LATER TONIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL RESPOND BY BEING MOSTLY OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT WHILE ALSO BEING LIGHT. MODELS BRING THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
ENDING UP OVER THE BIG BEND BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS SHOULD NOT
AFFECT THE CURRENT PRECIP FORECAST AS RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FA. RAIN BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER LOW SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH TODAY, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE SOME SHOWERS
COULD PUSH INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO MAKE IT INTO
OUR NORTHERN ZONE WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK. EARLY
THURSDAY, AN UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL BE SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL
PLAINS AND HIGH OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS, AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE AZ/NM BORDER, AND A RIDGE BUILDING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. AS THE
UPPER PATTERN MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY, THE TROUGH WILL BE
ABSORBED INTO NORTHERN FLOW AS WELL AS THE HIGH GETS ABSORBED INTO
THE RIDGE AS IT BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW
WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND STALL OVER EASTERN TEXAS AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND CONDITIONS DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR REGION AND SET UP OVERHEAD
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING HEIGHTS AND
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FROM A LEE SURFACE TROUGH, TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP INTO THE 80S AND 90S NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
LIFR CIGS AND VIS HAS DEVELOPED OVER CDS WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. THE
CURRENT TREND INDICATES THAT AT LEAST LIFR CIGS (AND LIKELY VIS AS
WELL) WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
INCREASING TO MVFR OR BETTER AFTER SUNRISE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS REPORTED BY KVUF. PVW AND LBB ARE CURRENTLY
VFR, BUT IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST MVFR CIGS TO MOVE OVER
THE TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND DEWPOINT/TEMPERATURE
TRENDS ALSO INDICATED A REDUCTION IN VIS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE
UNKNOWN IS THE MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF THESE REDUCTIONS. THE TAFS
WILL BE AMENDED AS NEEDED. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...51
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