343
FXUS64 KLUB 240523
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1223 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PROSPECTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST TODAY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
- A HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING IS
FORECAST SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A DIFFUSE DRYLINE BACK
TO THE WEST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
DRYLINE SHOULD BEGIN MIXING EASTWARD SOON AS DIURNAL HEATING
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE LATE
AFTERNOON AND/OR ALONG A CONFLUENCE ZONE LOCATED FROM THE MOUTH OF
PALO DURO CANYON SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS MAY
BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. SECONDARILY, CONVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HEAT LOW IN
PLACE IN THE TRANS PECOS COULD END UP DRIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS A LITTLE LATER INTO THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER,
SEVERE CHANCES WILL EXIST WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THE END OF DIURNAL HEATING
THIS EVENING SHOULD KILL ANY ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS. THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WILL LEAVE A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT CHANCES LOOK SMALL. THE
DRYLINE WILL RETREAT TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND THE MOISTURE WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE FOR MOST AREAS.
TOMORROW WILL SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTER THE MIX. SAID FRONT MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AND THEN STALLS. A HOT, DRY, AND WELL MIXED AIR MASS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS THE DRYLINE LIKELY
SHIFTS EAST OF I-27 TOWARD THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EAST OF THE DRYLINE IS PROGGED TO RESULT IN SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. A TRIPLE POINT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND IN THE END (LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING) SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION, BUT BEFORE THEN ISOLATED CONVECTION DOWN THE DRYLINE
LATE IN THE DAY JUSTIFIES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE PRE-00Z TIME
FRAME.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025
WIDELY-SCATTERED-TO-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE
ONGOING SATURDAY EVENING, AND WILL POSE AN ATTENDANT RISK OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, A PROGRESSIVE,
SPLIT-FLOW REGIME WILL BE EMERGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S., WHILE THE
BACKSIDE OF THE PHASED, QUASI-ZONAL JET STREAK TRANSLATES FARTHER
EASTWARD INTO THE CORN BELT. A SOUTHERN-STREAM, POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY 25/00Z, WITH AN
AMPLIFIED BELT OF HIGH-LEVEL FLOW ROUNDING ITS BASE AND EMERGING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, POSITIONING THE CWA
BENEATH THE RIGHT-EXIT REGION OF THE 250 MB JET STREAK. MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL REMAIN DAMPENED DUE TO THE SPLITTING OF THE MORE-INTENSE
JETLET ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN-STREAM LOW ROTATING INTO THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN, WITH ABOUT 25 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW ADVECTING
OVER W TX, WHICH MAY BECOME CONVECTIVELY-AUGMENTED, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF SUBTLE VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING OVERHEAD. THE BELT
OF BROAD DIFLUENCE, AND MODERATE, DIVERGENT 250 MB OUTFLOW, WILL
MAINTAIN MOIST ASCENT INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS, WITH STORMS
DISSIPATING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY AS DIABATIC
STABILIZATION OCCURS AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS. A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY-LAYER AND HIGH LCLS WILL WARRANT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SEVERE-CALIBER WIND GUSTS, AND AS OBSERVED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, WARM-CLOUD DEPTHS NEAR 14 KFT; AND THE WEAKNESS IN THE MID-
LEVEL FLOW, WILL TEMPER THE HAIL RISK. HOWEVER, A FEW INSTANCES OF
HAIL BETWEEN 1-2" IN DIAMETER WILL ACCOMPANY THE BEST-ORGANIZED
STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT, AS AT LEAST MODEST, MID-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. HYDROMETEOR LOADING FROM THE
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN
LOCALIZED SWATHS OF HEAVY RAIN/HAIL.
AT THE SURFACE, A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A
LEE CYCLONE MEANDERING IN EASTERN NM. THE DRYLINE WILL BRANCH
SOUTHWARD FROM THIS SURFACE LOW, LEAVING THE CWA WITHIN THE MOIST
SECTOR, WHERE A PLUME OF MIDDLE-UPPER 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHILE
LOWERING TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON THE CAPROCK. WINDS WERE
NUDGED UPWARDS BY A FEW KT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE,
WHICH WILL BE MODERATE, AS THE LEE CYCLONE GRADUALLY DEEPENS TO NEAR
998 MB BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE RELATED ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WARM THETA-E
ADVECTION, ACTING TO SHARPEN THE BAROCLINITY OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MEANWHILE, THE EMERGENCE OF THE CORE
OF THE 250 MB JET STREAK, AT OR AROUND 55 KT, IN ADDITION TO A NET
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FLOW, WILL ENLARGE THE TOTAL CONTRIBUTION OF
SHEAR WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER TO AROUND 45 KT, ESPECIALLY AS
THE BACKING LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES DURING THE EVENING. SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES, AND THE CORRESPONDING
INCREASE OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW, WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT A STRONG,
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVER W TX THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED-LAYER PARCELS
TO POTENTIALLY YIELD UPWARDS OF 4,000 J/KG AMIDST EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES NEAR 30 KT. WHILE THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY VIGOROUS, THE LARGE, UPWARD-DIRECTED ACCELERATIONS FROM
THE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY EXTREME THERMAL INSTABILITY WILL OFFSET
THE MEAGER SHEAR EARLY ON IN THE CONVECTIVE STAGE.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED, MULTI-CELLULAR STORMS ARE FORECAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS INTENSE, DIABATIC HEATING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OCCURS. INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL THE MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXISTS GIVEN THE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS DEVELOPING BY MID-AFTERNOON. MULTI-CELLULAR STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO SPLIT AND MERGE INTO SUPERCELLS, POSING A RISK FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING
DOWNDRAFTS. AS SUNDAY EVENING APPROACHES, THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
BEGIN TO INTENSIFY TO AROUND 35-40 KT, RESULTING IN A SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY, ESPECIALLY FOR RIGHT-MOVING
SUPERCELLS, WITH 0-1-KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 200 J/KG AND 0-3-KM SRH
NEAR 300 J/KG. HYBRID-HP SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS, WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT
SERVING AS FOCI FOR THE ENHANCEMENT OF NEAR-STORM HODOGRAPH
AUGMENTATION, RESULTING IN A RISK FOR TORNADOES, SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE RAIN-WRAPPED. SIGNIFICANT-SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SUPPERCELLS, AS STRONG, LOW-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE
INFLOW WILL GOVERN THE FORMATION OF WIDE UPDRAFTS SUNDAY EVENING. A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT, TOO, GIVEN
THE EXCESSIVE WATER LOADING AND PWATS NEAR 1.60" AMIDST THE PLUME OF
MIDDLE 60 DEWPOINTS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. A MCS IS FORECAST TO
FORM, AND THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE EXACERBATED BY
FRONTAL-PARALLEL CORFIDI VECTORS (I.E., BACK-BUILDING STORMS ALONG
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT). A CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED, SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SHOULD OCCUR HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING,
WITH THE FRONT POTENTIALLY CLEARING SOUTH OF THE CWA.
A SEMI-PROGRESSIVE, WAVY PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INTACT BY THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SEVERAL SERIES OF
PERTURBATIONS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. THE CONVECTIVE
EPISODE FROM SUNDAY, AND THE POSITION OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT,
WILL GOVERN THE STORM POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY (IT APPEARS DRIER THAN
WHAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST), BUT THE RESIDUAL EML
AND WEAK CINH BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS MAY RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. RENEWED CHANCES FOR
STORMS ARE OTHERWISE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, AS THE
DRYLINE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF A SIGNIFICANTLY
TILTED TROUGH/STRONG, LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT, ALONG WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SINCAVAGE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...12
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