058
FXUS64 KLUB 250831
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
331 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE
POSITIONED JUST WEST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR BY THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE TODAY INCLUDING LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND A TORNADO OR TWO.
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEGINS
TO TRANSLATE OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERS
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE ASSOCIATED H5 JET STREAK, ALTHOUGH
NOT OVERLY STRONG, WILL BE MODEST AROUND 40 KNOTS AND PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL UPSCALE ASCENT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS WILL
BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY, SPECIFICALLY AREAS SOUTH OF AN INCOMING
FROPA AND EAST OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE.
THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX EASTWARD TOWARDS THE I-27 CORRIDOR
(PARKING WEST OF THE CORRIDOR) BY PEAK HEATING, AIDED BY DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, THE FRONT THAT PREVIOUSLY MOVED THROUGH PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES YESTERDAY HAS RETREATED NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING, AS ANALYZED BY WTM
STATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOST HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS
THE FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD ONCE AGAIN BY DAYBREAK WHERE IT
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES AROUND THE 21Z
TO 00Z TIME FRAME. WEAK POST FRONTAL WINDS AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL ACT TO DELAY THE FORWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT, MAKING THE PRECISE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN AT THIS POINT IN TIME. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF POST FRONTAL WINDS, THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING IN NATURE AND BE POSITIONED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS BY THE MID-AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.
HOW THIS SURFACE PATTERN EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL BE
CRITICAL IN DETERMINING THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF STORM INITIATION
THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST AREAS ACROSS THE FA WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S TODAY BEFORE THE FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE THROUGH. GIVEN THIS, CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE REACHED FAIRLY QUICKLY, PROMOTING THE EROSION OF THE VERY WEAK
CAPPING INVERSION BENEATH THE WELL ESTABLISHED EML. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONT, WITH AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG, STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS. THEREFORE, ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON,
WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH. A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE, WHERE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST
AND ENHANCES LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS
REGION CAPTURE ELONGATED, CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND SFC-1KM SHEAR OF
AT LEAST 20 KNOTS, INDICATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MID TO
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN STRONGER STORM CORES MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5" TO 2",
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS, AND ALTHOUGH
PWATS ARE NOT AS HIGH, THIS AREA HAS SEEN OUR HIGHEST 48 HOUR
TOTALS OF 2" AND ANY STRONG STORM CORES THAT DEVELOP COULD QUICKLY
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD CONCERNS. STORMS WILL TRACK FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, LIKELY GROWING UPSCALE INTO AN
MCS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE LLJ RAMPS UP. STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING
STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 50S TO MID 60S ARE
EXPECTED AS THE FROPA PASSES SOUTH OF THE FA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
BY MONDAY MORNING, NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE FRONTAL/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN. THIS COMBINED WITH
WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER OR NOT A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER SE NM
CAN BRING SOME EARLIER CLEARING/WARMING ESPECIALLY TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW, WILL PUSH MAXTS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NBM PROGS CLOSER TO MOS, WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT HIGHS
MONDAY MAY NEED TO COME DOWN EVEN MORE WITH LATER FORECASTS.
REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ON MONDAY, THE RELATIVELY COOL AND
STABLE SURFACE LAYER SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
COMPARED TO TODAY. THAT BEING SAID, FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW
QUITE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE GIVEN MIDLEVEL COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN H5 TROUGH AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED OR
PERHAPS SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
A PRIMARY HAZARD OF LARGE HAIL, AND WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN
MENTIONABLE POPS OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH LATE MONDAY
EVENING. IF SURFACE TROUGHING OVER SE NM PROVES MORE ROBUST THAN
CURRENTLY PROGGED, A DRYLINE COULD SHARPEN OVER OUR AREA AND RESULT
IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS, BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE THE LESS
LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL, MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH MOST OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD, WITH A FAIRLY
LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW POTENTIALLY FORMING OFF THE CA COAST BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS WELL-RESOLVED, THE
FINER SCALE DETAILS ARE STILL MURKY WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING WHETHER FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY REMAINS MORE
ZONAL OR TRANSITIONS TO A PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
STILL, GIVEN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERALLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
FLOW IN PLACE, THUNDERSTORMS CERTAINLY REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY
THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK ESPECIALLY IF MORE COHERENT SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES TRACK OVERHEAD. NBM POPS LOOK REASONABLE, WITH ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS STILL HIGHLIGHTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
TIME PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST STORM CHANCES AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES OVERHEAD. IN SUMMARY, ACTIVE WEATHER AND GENERALLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER, BUT
PREDICTABILITY AND CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS REMAIN LOW AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCES
FOR TSRA WILL RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING OF STORMS, BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT A PROB30 MENTION AT THIS TIME AT ALL
TERMINALS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...12
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