062
FXUS64 KLUB 251905
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
205 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT REMAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- MUCH COOLER FOR MEMORIAL DAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT, BUT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
A COMPLEX PATTERN HAS SET UP/IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, COMPLICATED BY A SERIES OF GRAVITY WAVES ROLLING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE AND BEYOND. THESE GRAVITY WAVES ARE GIVING IMPETUS TO THE
EASTERN FLANK OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. SAID FRONT LIES ROUGHLY FROM MULESHOE TO
PLAINVIEW TO GUTHRIE AS OF 130 PM WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
FROM MULESHOE TO DENVER CITY. THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN INITIATION OF
RATHER JUNKY CONVECTION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE GRAVITY
WAVES ARE INTERACTING WITH SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY, BUT FOR NOW
THE CAP IS HOLDING. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE-BASED INITIATION
MAY OCCUR ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS EARLY 2 TO 3 PM WHILE DOWN
THE DRYLINE THAT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL 4 TO 5 PM. THIS SOUTHWARD PUSH
TO THE COLD FRONT MAY END UP LIMITING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, ALTHOUGH SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME THETA-
E ADVECTION CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE. STILL, THE FOCUS FOR HIGHER-END SEVERE MAY END UP BEING
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND EAST OF THE I-
27/US-87 CORRIDOR WHERE SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, RESULTING CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000
J/KG. OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR NOW WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CHANGE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.
MONDAY WILL SEE A SHARP CHANGE IN THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLD FRONT LYING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL END
UP SURGING SOUTHWARD TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL STRATUS AND COOLER
NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND IT. THE STRATUS HAS A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF
HANGING ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA, AND NBM HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK A BIT TOO WARM
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO. HAVE ADJUSTED TOWARD THE COOLER MOS VALUES AS A
RESULT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED IN THE COOLER AIR MASS, BUT WITH THE
INCOMING LIFT, APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE WORDING FOR
POPS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
EXTENDED FORECAST IS STILL ON PAR FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EVERYDAY THIS WEEK. UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS TRACKING NEAR THE REGION AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WILL AID IN GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING LARGE HAIL. IF A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NM STRENGTHENS, A DRYLINE COULD SET UP OVER THE
REGION BRINGING GREATER CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH,
THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GET PULLED TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY
BY AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SAME
TIME AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS
ANOTHER CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK BUT
SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY BY THE WEEKEND AS THE FIRST CUT OFF LOW
SLOWLY MOVES EAST BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED INTO NORTHERLY FLOW AND
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL CONUS. ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW KEEPS CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION EVERY DAY THIS WEEK. GREATER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK OVERHEAD AIDING IN UPPER LEVEL ASCENT.
PREDOMINATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO 80S WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP THIS
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
TS STILL IN THE OFFING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE
DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCI FOR TS
INITIATION AND DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING
WILL KEEP A PROB30 MENTION FOR NOW. AWAY FROM TS VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TERMINALS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AFTER IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...07
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