694
FXUS64 KLUB 261130
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
630 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TODAY WITH STORM CHANCES RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- COOLER WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR CHANNEL IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AT 07Z, WITH NEAR-ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. RELATIVELY WEAK
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS ALREADY IN PLACE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION, AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. LOW
STRATUS HAS BEEN QUITE SLOW TO DEVELOP THUS FAR, AND WHILE A BROKEN
DECK OF CLOUDS IS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT OVER MOST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING, GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO HINT AT CLOUD COVER BEING LESS
EXTENSIVE TODAY THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. STILL, THE PERSISTENT
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW COMPONENT AND AT LEAST SOME MORNING CLOUD
COVER WILL RESULT IN A NOTICABLY COOLER DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 70S ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY, WE GENERALLY EXPECT TODAY TO
BE LESS ACTIVE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE
COOLER AND MORE STABLE SURFACE AIRMASS, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICTING PLENTY OF CINH ASSOCIATED WITH A CAPPING INVERSION BENEATH
THE STILL-PRESENT EML. CONSEQUENTLY, THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY DRY, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY LATE AFTERNOON AS INHIBITION GRADUALLY
ERODES. THERE IS VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES, AS CONVECTION MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE
WIDESPREAD IF CLOUD COVER IS LESS EXTENSIVE OR QUICKER TO ERODE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THIS EVENING, STORM CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER AS UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW
RESULTS IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO, WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
OUR AREA IN TANDEM WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS ROUGHLY SPLIT ON
WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST AS A SEMI-ORGANIZED LINE AS IT
MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS OR WEAKEN QUICKLY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, BUT
ENOUGH SIGNAL IS PRESENT IN HI-RES DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL TODAY IS GENERALLY LOWER TODAY, BUT A FEW INSTANCES OF
SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. AFTER ANY STORMS EXIT AROUND MIDNIGHT, A QUIET OVERNIGHT
PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A POTENTIALLY WETTER WEEK ARE IN STORE
FOR THE REGION. A RELATIVELY PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REGIME IS
EXPECTED OVER THE FA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TRANSLATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AT THE SAME TIME, A CUTOFF LOW
WEST OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO PHASE INTO THE MAIN FLOW,
WITH ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING STEADY
IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.ALTHOUGH FORCING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RATHER WEAK, DAILY PERTURBATIONS RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT IN ADDITION TO THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE FLOW,
SUGGESTS A DECENT SUMMERTIME LIKE CONVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO BEFORE TRACKING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER, THE CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN
DISCREPANCIES STILL IN PLACE AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FA FINDS
ITSELF BENEATH BETTER JET DYNAMICS. GIVEN THIS, WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN WITH NBM SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
THE LATEST TRENDS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IN COMBINATION WITH DECREASED THICKNESS VALUES
WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMING A FEW DEGREES BY MID-WEEK
AS SURFACE WINDS VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST UNDER MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES. A WEAK SECONDARY FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY FORECASTED TO BE 1 TO 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
MOVE OVERHEAD AND SURFACE WINDS VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS A
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW CIGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MVFR CIGS
HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED AT KCDS AT 11Z WITH KLBB AND KPVW LIKELY TO
FOLLOW SUIT SHORTLY. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN JUST HOW LONG THESE LOW
CIGS PERSIST, WITH ABOUT EQUAL CHANCES OF VFR RETURNING BY MIDDAY
AND MVFR CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, WILL CARRY A
RELATIVELY PESSIMISTIC TAF WITH VFR RETURNING AROUND MID-
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE OTHER FORECAST
CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND CONVECTION TODAY. ISOLATED TS ARE
POSSIBLE BASICALLY ANYWHERE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE AND IN THUNDER IMPACTING ANY TERMINAL
IS TOO LOW TO CARRY TS MENTION THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS
EVENING, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT A BROKEN LINE OF TS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY APPROACH THE TERMINALS
AFTER 00Z, WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT AS WELL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...30
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