657
FXUS64 KLUB 261941
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
241 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TODAY WITH STORM CHANCES RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- COOLER WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TONIGHT LIKELY COME WITH CONVECTION THAT COMES
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, SUPPORTED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS, AND INTO AN AIR MASS WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN
WHETHER THIS CONVECTION WILL SURVIVE COMING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN,
ALTHOUGH A MAJORITY OF CAMS SUGGEST IT WILL. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW AND FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED ON THE DOWNSIDE
TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOIST, UPSLOPE FLOW, APART FROM COOL OUTFLOW
FROM SHOULD AN MCS MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN PATTERN IS EXPECTED, APART FROM SOME MODEST
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND TONIGHT'S DEPARTING MID/UPPER TROUGH. THIS AGAIN
SUGGESTS THAT THE NBM IS A BIT TOO WARM AND HAVE TRENDED DOWN TOWARD
A MOS/NBM MIX FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. CAP STRENGTH LIKELY HOLDS
CONVECTION AT BAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, APART FROM SMALL POSSIBILITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE SOME AFTERNOON INSOLATION MAY HELP
WITH DESTABILIZATION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
FOR THIS WEEK, MORE MOISTURE, COOLER TEMPERATURES, MODEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MID WEEK.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT CAPE VALUES THUS DECREASING THE
POTENTIAL OF THE MORE SEVERE WEATHER LIKE WE'VE SEEN FOR THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM THE CURRENT MORE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500MB TO MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW IN THE DAKOTAS MOVES EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE PATTERN ALLOWS FOR STRONGER MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AT
850MB WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL GIVE US THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR AREA WIDE RAINFALL AND SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN STORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE LATEST GFS RUN BRINGS A
STRONGER SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD
LIMIT INSTABILITY THURSDAY LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS THAN STORMS.
WITH COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, THE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL
BE LOWER, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE THE CHANCES OF A FEW SEVERE
STORMS. A SHORT WAVE ROTATING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT COULD BRING IN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND, BUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC THIS TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH-
END MVFR TO LOW END VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT WITH
POCKETS OF LOWER MVFR. LATE NIGHT HOURS SHOULD BRING A MORE SOLID
MVFR CEILING TO THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF IFR. THE
OTHER ISSUE THIS PERIOD WILL BE TS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE BETTER CHANCES
WILL COME MID TO LATE EVENING AS A POTENTIAL MCS ROLLS OUT OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE
PROB30 MENTION FOR NOW WITH THE 00Z CYCLE LIKELY ABLE TO HONE IN
BETTER ON TIMING AND COVERAGE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07
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