137
FXUS64 KLUB 270534
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1234 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW STORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, OTHERWISE
DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL TONIGHT.
- COOLER WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
UPDATED TO BOOST POPS BEFORE MIDNIGHT ON THE CAPROCK IN
EXPECTATION OF STORMS CURRENTLY IN EASTERN NM CONGEALING AS THEY
SPREAD EAST. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED CUMULUS
FOCUSING ALONG AN E-W BOUNDARY STALLED FROM JUST NORTH OF CVS TO
NEAR HRX AND THIS SHOULD SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH, SURFACE
WINDS ARE LESS CONVERGENT WITHIN WEAK EASTERLIES, YET A THETA-E
RIDGE IS EVIDENT FROM CVS TO LBB COINCIDENT WITH AROUND 1500-2500
J/KG OF MLCAPE AND NEGLIGIBLE CINH. PROVIDED OUTFLOW FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION CAN CONSOLIDATE, THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
SUPPORT MULTICELLS AND LINEAR MODES ON THE CAPROCK BEFORE
INSTABILITY WANES AND CONVECTION DECLINES FARTHER EAST PAST
MIDNIGHT WHICH FITS WELL WITH THE EASTERN TERMINUS OF THE SVR
BOX.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TONIGHT LIKELY COME WITH CONVECTION THAT COMES
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, SUPPORTED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS, AND INTO AN AIR MASS WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN
WHETHER THIS CONVECTION WILL SURVIVE COMING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN,
ALTHOUGH A MAJORITY OF CAMS SUGGEST IT WILL. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW AND FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED ON THE DOWNSIDE
TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOIST, UPSLOPE FLOW, APART FROM COOL OUTFLOW
FROM SHOULD AN MCS MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN PATTERN IS EXPECTED, APART FROM SOME MODEST
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND TONIGHT'S DEPARTING MID/UPPER TROUGH. THIS AGAIN
SUGGESTS THAT THE NBM IS A BIT TOO WARM AND HAVE TRENDED DOWN TOWARD
A MOS/NBM MIX FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. CAP STRENGTH LIKELY HOLDS
CONVECTION AT BAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, APART FROM SMALL POSSIBILITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE SOME AFTERNOON INSOLATION MAY HELP
WITH DESTABILIZATION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
FOR THIS WEEK, MORE MOISTURE, COOLER TEMPERATURES, MODEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MID WEEK.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT CAPE VALUES THUS DECREASING THE
POTENTIAL OF THE MORE SEVERE WEATHER LIKE WE'VE SEEN FOR THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM THE CURRENT MORE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500MB TO MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW IN THE DAKOTAS MOVES EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE PATTERN ALLOWS FOR STRONGER MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AT
850MB WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL GIVE US THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR AREA WIDE RAINFALL AND SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN STORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE LATEST GFS RUN BRINGS A
STRONGER SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD
LIMIT INSTABILITY THURSDAY LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS THAN STORMS.
WITH COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, THE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL
BE LOWER, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE THE CHANCES OF A FEW SEVERE
STORMS. A SHORT WAVE ROTATING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT COULD BRING IN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND, BUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY ENDED AT KLBB AND KPVW, BUT
WILL CONTINUE AT KCDS THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE, NO
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE CURRENTLY SPOTTY AT
05Z, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN OVER MOST OF THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES, BUT
HOW WIDESPREAD THEY BECOME AND HOW LONG THEY PERSIST IS UNCERTAIN.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT BY MID-MORNING WITH VFR CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY
RETURN BY THIS EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW FOR TAF
MENTION AT THIS TIME.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30
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