940
FXUS64 KLUB 270817
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
317 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE TODAY WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL
STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- COOLER WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM NEAR EL PASO TO THE FOUR CORNERS
AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
STATIONARY TODAY, WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER WEST TEXAS CONSEQUENTLY
PROGGED TO REMAIN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
SURFACE FLOW REGIME WILL ALSO REMAIN RELATIVELY STAGNANT TODAY AS
WEAK EASTERLY FLOW IS SET TO PERSIST, WITH THE GENERALLY UNCHANGED
SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A FAIRLY SIMILAR DAY TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80. REGARDING CONVECTIVE CHANCES TODAY,
WEAK CAPPING COURTESY OF COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST
SCATTERED MORNING CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP STORMS VERY ISOLATED
TO NON-EXISTENT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THIS CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED
INHIBITION WILL ERODE HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, AND HI-RES MODELS
ARE GENERALLY IN POOR AGREEMENT REGARDING HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS
AND EVOLVES TODAY. OVERALL, WE STILL EXPECT CLOUD COVER AND
INHIBITION TO DISSIPATE RELATIVELY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL CINH
FOR THUNDERSTORMS BASICALLY ANYWHERE ON THE CAPROCK BEGINNING BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION MAY END UP FOCUSING ALONG A WEAK THETA-E
RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN
PLACE, MOST OF THE AREA IS FAIR GAME FOR A STORM OR TWO AND WILL
THEREFORE KEEP POPS QUITE BROAD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SOME
MODELS THEN DEVELOP ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NM WHICH MAY
TRACK INTO OUR REGION DURING THE EVENING, BUT THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. OVERALL,
THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY AND THIS EVENING IS RELATIVELY LOW, LIMITED
BY A GENERAL LACK OF SHEAR GIVEN WEAKER FLOW ALOFT. STILL, A STORM
OR TWO CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. ANY STORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH THE
TREND STILL BEING COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND. THE FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF SANDWICHED BETWEEN
SYSTEMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRANSLATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BECOMES AMPLIFIED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS A CUTOFF LOW MOVES
ONSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHERE IT WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW
NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEWPOINTS STEADY IN THE 50S AND 60S. ALTHOUGH
FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK, DAILY PERTURBATIONS RIPPLING
THROUGH THE FLOW IN ADDITION TO THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FORMING
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO, TRACKING EAST INTO THE
FA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE WINDOW
LOOKING TO BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECASTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK
WILL LIKELY HELP REINFORCE THE CAP AND MAINTAIN THE EVER PERSISTENT
EML DEPICTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION, THUS LEADING
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN STORM SEVERITY. WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO HAVE THE
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000
J/KG, STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8C/KM, AND BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES AROUND 30 KNOTS, THUS SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A
REINFORCED SHOT OF COOLER AIR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, FROM A COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTH INTO THE AREA, MAY FURTHER
LIMIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ON THURSDAY WITH THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 70S AREA-WIDE. HOWEVER, A
PASSING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
UPSCALE LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THURSDAY POPS REMAINS LOW WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT OFF TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. PRECIPITATION DETAILS INTO THE WEEKEND REMAIN
MURKY AT THIS TIME, WITH DAILY CHANCES EXPECTED GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REGIME. THEREFORE, NBM
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT
IN TIME. AFTER A NICE COOL WEEK, A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES
BACK IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE OVERHEAD AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY ENDED AT KLBB AND KPVW, BUT
WILL CONTINUE AT KCDS THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE, NO
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE CURRENTLY SPOTTY AT
05Z, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN OVER MOST OF THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES, BUT
HOW WIDESPREAD THEY BECOME AND HOW LONG THEY PERSIST IS UNCERTAIN.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT BY MID-MORNING WITH VFR CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY
RETURN BY THIS EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW FOR TAF
MENTION AT THIS TIME.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...30
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page