796
FXUS64 KLUB 272316
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
616 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
- COOLER WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND SURFACE WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. WHILE MOISTURE PARAMETERS ARE SUBSEQUENTLY
FAVORABLE (PWATS NEAR 1" THIS AFTERNOON), LIFT WILL BE QUITE
MINIMAL. CAPE WILL APPROACH 1000 J/KG, HOWEVER THE MORNING CLOUD
COVER HAS DEFINITELY STABILIZED THE ENVIRONMENT TO THE POINT WHERE
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE GENERALLY ISOLATED.
HIGHS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80. A WEAK UPPER
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY MORE ELEVATED CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS IN PARTICULAR. HOWEVER, CAMS GENERALLY SHOW THESE NOT
MAKING IT MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL BE
QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWER CLOUD COVER WILL LIKEWISE PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AND CREATE A SIMILAR INHIBITED CONVECTIVE SETUP FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CAMS ARE ONLY INDICATING VERY ISOLATED STORMS
AT THIS POINT AND STOCK NBM POPS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY LOWERED. A MORE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE FORCING PARAMETERS AND BRING
HIGHER CHANCES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MORE DETAILS IN THE LONG-
TERM SECTION.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
A MESSY UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS UPPER LOW/HIGHLY ELONGATED
TROUGH WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL HELP KEEP HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 70S BY LATE WEEK. MODELS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN WITH
REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING THE
MOST BULLISH. FORCING WILL BE MOSTLY FRONTAL AS UPPER LIFT WILL BE
WEAK. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT IS IT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FA AND REACHES
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS INSTABILITY AND LIFT DIMINISHES. A STRONGER
BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST
OF BAJA DEEPENS AND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AMPLIFIES. WHILE
UPPER FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY, IT WILL BE WEAK AS WILL ANY
LIFT. WHILE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, CHANCES
FOR ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS LOW AND WILL MOSTLY RESULT FROM
TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTION TO OUR WEST. THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE GETS KICKED EASTWARD BY
AN UPPER LOW OVER MOVING INTO NORTHERN ALBERTA. THIS PLACES THE
UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY AND IS REFLECTED BY HIGH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE 90S ON SUNDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES
MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST BEFORE IT PHASES WITH THE STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVING
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SCATTERED TS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIKELY TO STAY SOUTH
OF THE TERMINALS, AND TS CHANCES WEDNESDAY ARE TOO SMALL TO INSERT
A MENTION. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY, MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN MVFR TERRITORY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER STRATUS DISSIPATES.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...07
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