024
FXUS64 KLUB 281737
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1237 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
- STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING CREATING
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM, SEVERAL MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX FROM THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. IT IS DIFFICULT AT THE
MOMENT TO DETERMINE IF AN MCV IS FORMING BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT COLD
CLOUD TOPS FROM GOING CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IS ALSO OCCURRING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WAS ALSO
COMPLEMENTING THE LOWER LEVEL LIFT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION
GOING THOUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. STRONG ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WAS FEEDING INTO THIS ACTIVITY WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME
STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS
MCV IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ROUGHLY ALONG THE 33RD PARALLEL THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE FAVORED ALONG A LINE FROM BIG SPRING TO ABILENE LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS. WITH THIS FAIRLY SMALL SCALE FEATURE, SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON ARE NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR AS
WELL. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS OVERHEAD TODAY
LEAVING THE REGION IN A SUBSIDENT REGION. NO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT
FEATURES ARE NOTED IN MODEL DATA WITH BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO LOWER LEVEL LIFT. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME DEEPLY MIXED THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
EASILY ERODE A CAP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL LEAD TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG THROUGH A
MIXED LAYER. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF ANY LIFT AND EVEN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
PRESENT WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BETTER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL MANIFEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND PERSISTENT IN CONVECTING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE IN SHORT
SUPPLY AS THE FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE AREA. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER, SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE LOW WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
THE FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF SANDWICHED BETWEEN SYSTEMS AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED, AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATES THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE OFF TO OUR WEST A CUTOFF LOW CENTERS
ITSELF OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE REGION, WITH THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE,
SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE TROUGH TO OUR
NORTHEAST SWINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE FA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR IN COMBINATION WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S, WITH THE
HIGHEST TEMPERATURES LOCATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES.
ADDITIONALLY, AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AREAS ACROSS OFF THE CAPROCK COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY, LIKELY QUICKLY DISSIPATING DUE TO THE LACK OF
FORCING AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY SHOT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON, DRIVEN BY THE RETURN
OF MOIST-UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. THOUGH WEAK STEERING FLOW MAY LIMIT THEIR EASTWARD
PROGRESSION INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERALL. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO
REACH OUR AREA THEY WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THEY ENCOUNTER A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT, MARKED BY LIMITED SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY, A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION, AND A PERSISTENT EML NOTED
BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED
CONVECTION WOULD FAVOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, WHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES MAY HELP ERODE THE CAP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
ACTIVITY.
WE WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK INTO THE 80S AND 90S FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH WE WILL BEGIN TO WARM,
THERE IS STILL CHANCES FOR DAILY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW
REGIME, WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
TRACKING INTO PORTIONS OF THE FA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THEN BEGINS TO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, POSSIBLY SEVERE, BY MID-WEEK AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SHARPENING DRYLINE. GIVEN THIS IS
STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT, DETAILS REMAIN MURKY, AND WILL RIDE WITH THE
CURRENT NBM MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER NEAR TERMINALS HOWEVER, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THUNDER CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KCDS
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT HOWEVER, CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN TAF. BRIEF PERIODS OF LLWS OVER KPVW AND KLBB ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TOMORROW MORNING AND
CAN EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AT KCDS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FOR KPVW AND KLBB, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...10
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