670
FXUS64 KLUB 282314
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
614 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING BRINGING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
- SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
THE GREATEST POSSIBILITY OF SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
A COUPLE SMALL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE ROLLING PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OF THE FA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS THAT
SPANNED MOST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED. THE
FEW STRAGGLERS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY INTO TOMORROW
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION AND A WEAK RIDGE IS
SET UP TO THE WEST. THE REST OF TODAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS LACK OF
LIFT AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES RETURN TO THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO SURVIVE LONG DUE TO LACK OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY IN THE
REGION. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH USHERING
IN COOLER AIR AND IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
THE DAY, HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH 70S FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION AND 80S FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS MOIST UP-SLOPE SURFACE FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA ALTHOUGH, A STABLE ENVIRONMENT, LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION COULD COULD HINDER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
WARMER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ERODE THE CAP ENOUGH.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WEST OF THE FA BY LATE TOMORROW EVENING.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND SHOULD
BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM AS UPPER LIFT
WILL, FOR THE MOST PART, BE LACKING. THE FRONT WILL HELP KEEP FRIDAY
COOL, HIGHS IN THE 70S, BEFORE UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE OVERHEAD
THIS WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE BREAKDOWN OF THE BLOCKING
PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH MUCH OF THE BOCK, ESPECIALLY
THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA, REMAINING IN PLACE UNTIL AT
LEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS, ALONG WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES,
SHOULD HELP SLOW THE WARMING OF AFTERNOON TEMPS SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED
TO BEGIN PUSHING EASTWARD LATE SUNDAY AND PHASING MONDAY WITH A
SECOND UPPER LOW PUSHING SOUTHWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL BRING UPPER FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DRYLINE CONVECTION EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT IS THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS EVENING. IT
IS A BIT DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH BETWEEN THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
LATE TONIGHT AND THE COLD FRONT (LIKELY LATER INTO THE DAY), BUT
FOR CERTAIN STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA AT
LEAST BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT ISSUE IS TS POTENTIAL.
WILL WATCH A TS COMPLEX MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT KCDS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS A BIT TOO LOW TO INSERT A MENTION AT
THIS TIME AS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT STAYS TO THE NORTH
OF THAT TERMINAL. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME TS DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON THAT MIGHT AFFECT KLBB LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD, BUT AGAIN WITH UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAVE THAT OUT AS
WELL. FINALLY, STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN TOWARD SUNRISE,
MOSTLY LIKELY AFFECTING KPVW AND KCDS AND LIKELY IN MVFR CATEGORY,
ALTHOUGH WITH POTENTIAL TO AGAIN DROP DOWN INTO IFR TERRITORY FOR
A BIT.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...07
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