187
FXUS64 KLUB 291126
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
626 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MOSTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
- DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, ARE FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- MONDAY HAS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR OUR
WEATHER TODAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL INITIALLY MOVE THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL
GET A BOOST THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST. A NOTABLE INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH
THE SECOND PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
EXIST ALONG THIS SURFACE FEATURE FAVORING SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TODAY WITH
RAPIDLY RISING HEIGHTS. WE WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND A CUT OFF LOW OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA. IN BETWEEN, SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN
BRINGING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT IN THE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
INITIATION EXPECTED AROUND 20-21Z.
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGHER THETA-E VALUES WILL
EXIST ALONG AND JUST ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE BIG COUNTRY INTO FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR. MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY WILL GROW TO VALUES GREATER
THAN 2500 J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH NO CAPPING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL ALSO BE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT, THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COUPLED WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE CAPABLE OF INITIALLY PRODUCING SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL
HELICITY VALUES WILL AMPLIFY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ANY SUPERCELLS CLOSE TO THE FRONT WILL SEE THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF TORNADO PRODUCTION. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
EFFECTIVE STP VALUES AROUND FIVE TO SIX MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, A GLOB OF MULTICELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE ADVANCING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING MORE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THICK
CLOUD COVER AND COOL TEMPERATURES FORECAST AREA-WIDE. IN THE
MID/UPPER-LEVELS, AN AMPLIFIED OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE NORTHERN U.S.
AND CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE, AS CLOSED LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DISSOLVES INTO AN OPEN TROUGH. THE POLEWARD
DISPLACEMENT OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN CENTERED OVER CANADA WILL ALLOW
A BAROTROPIC LOW TO MEANDER OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE THE CWA
REMAINS BENEATH THE SOUTHERN-STREAM 250 MB JET STREAK ATOP A BELT OF
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE ORIENTATION OF THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVECTION OF SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
FRIDAY, WITH LOW-LEVEL STRATUS SLOW TO MIX OUT FROM THE STOUT
THERMAL INVERSION THAT WILL REMAIN INTACT.
AT THE SURFACE, THE POST-FRONTAL ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
INTO THE CWA, WITH LIGHT, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
VEER SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE HIGH ROTATES EASTWARD. PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY AS BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTENING IS ENHANCED FROM THE REMNANTS OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
THE NIGHT PRIOR, AND WAS ADDED AREA-WIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW
TO WARM, AS THE EFFECTS OF DIABATIC HEATING ARE RESTRICTED FROM THE
PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK, AND WERE ALSO COOLED TO ALIGN WITH THE RAW
00Z STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN COOL AND STABLE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, AND POPS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GENERATED BY
THE NBM WERE REMOVED, AS DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CWA WHERE BETTER LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE EXISTS.
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO STEADILY RISE OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE SOUTHERN-STREAM 250 MB RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF THE
BAROTROPIC LOW STILL ROTATING OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE CWA WILL
REMAIN WITHIN THE INFLECTION POINT OF THE NEGATIVELY-TILTING TROUGH
PIVOTING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, ULTIMATELY MAINTAINING THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. A TRAIN OF VORTICITY LOBES EMANATING FROM A DECAYING,
NORTHERN-STREAM PV ANOMALY PROPAGATING INTO CENTRAL CANADA ARE
FORECAST TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE AND ROTATE
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BY SATURDAY. MOIST, ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BELT OF AMPLIFYING 250 MB FLOW, IN
ADDITION TO FULL INSOLATION DRIVING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE
80S, MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. WHILE
RETURN FLOW WILL BE WEAK (I.E., NO LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TO GENERATE AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE STRONG ENOUGH FOR EVEN A BREEZE), THE FORMATION
OF A DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR INITIATION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY STORM MODE WILL BE MULTI-CELLULAR
CLUSTERS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE-CALIBER GUSTS. WARM, MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SMALL
HODOGRAPHS WILL TEMPER THE ORGANIZATION OF MESOCYCLONES, AND THE
OVERALL RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL IS LOW. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. PERSISTENCE FORECASTING WAS
APPLIED TO SUNDAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HOTTER TEMPERATURES AS THE
APEX OF THE SOUTHERN-STREAM 250 MB RIDGE ARCS OVER THE REGION. LOW
CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN, MULTI-CELLULAR STORMS REMAIN FORECAST
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.
THE OMEGA BLOCK IS FORECAST TO COLLAPSE ENTIRELY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND IMPINGING ON THE BAROTROPIC LOW ROTATING OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO LOSE ITS BAROTROPY AND BECOME
ABSORBED INTO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES, AND EJECT NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE GREAT PLAINS ON MONDAY. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY, WITH THE DRYLINE FORMING TO THE WEST OF
THE NM STATE LINE. THE ENTIRE CWA IS FORECAST TO BE WITHIN THE
MOIST/WARM SECTOR MONDAY, WITH CROSS-BOUNDARY SHEAR VECTORS
GARNERING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
VORTICITY LOBE EJECT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THE ORIENTATION OF THE
DEEP- AND CLOUD-LAYER FLOW COMBINED WITH A STRONG EML FAVORS A
SUPERCELL STORM MODE MONDAY. THEREAFTER, BROAD TROUGHING IS FORECAST
TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE LOWER 48, YIELDING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME SEVERE, EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SINCAVAGE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
LOW CIGS WERE PATCHY ACROSS THE AREA AT THE MOMENT BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO FILL IN MORE AFTER SUNRISE. CIGS MAY REMAIN MORE
PATCHY CLOSE TO KLBB AND MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A STALLED OUT FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS VARYING
BETWEEN SOUTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON AND MOVE
CLOSE TO THE KLBB AND KPVW TERMINALS. LOW CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...01
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