786
FXUS64 KLUB 292318
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
618 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, ARE FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LONG AWAITED COLD FRONT HAS
FINALLY PUSHED INTO THE CWA. AT THE MOMENT, THE BOUNDARY IS
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO LUBBOCK. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY AND BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOLLOW THE
FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD GET ANOTHER BOOST TOWARDS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS A SURFACE TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH THE MIDWEST. LOCATION
OF INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FROM STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD BETWEEN A TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND A LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. MODELS
INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THEREFORE, GREATEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND A
TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MODELS INDICATE A
DECENT LAYER OF INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO 2800 J/KG AND
DAYTIME HEATING ERODING ANY CAPPING BY THE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT IN COMBINATION WITH THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SUPERCELLS. SUPERCELLS THAT FORM
CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING DECENT HELICITY
VALUES CLOSE TO THE FRONT WITH EFFECTIVE STP VALUES AROUND 6 LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SOUTHWEST
SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE SOUTHEAST AND ARE
CAPABLE OF HAIL UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 80
MPH, AND TORNADOES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
MODELS ARE STILL DELAYING THE BREAKDOWN OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN
UNTIL LATE WEEKEND. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD BY
LATE SUNDAY AS IT IS KICKED EASTWARD BY AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO WARM HIGHS
INTO THE 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF
BAJA WILL PHASE WITH THE MAIN FLOW MONDAY AS A SECOND UPPER LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RESULTING FROM THE PHASED UPPER LOW WILL PUSH A DRYLINE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. MODELS ARE DIVERGING WITH THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ALONG THE DRYLINE. THE GFS DRYSLOT THE FA WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE
GENEROUS WITH PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES MID WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
TS LIKELY TO STAY SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS NOW THAT THE MAIN ACTION
IS LOCATED ALONG THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN KLBB AND KMAF. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL HANG ON AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS
MAY WELL DEVELOP BUT TIMING AND DURATION OF THAT IS PROBLEMATIC,
SO HAVE KEPT TAFS SIMPLE AT THIS TIME.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...07
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