939
FXUS64 KLUB 280759
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
259 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 251 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
DAY. UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS
INCLUDING WEST TEXAS. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES FROM THE
RIDGE WILL SLIGHTLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
WITH 90S EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE REGION. SUBSTANTIAL
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES AS THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME PERSISTS. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE INTERRUPTED
BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE
REACHED WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LIFT FROM THE
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER, THERE IS ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES (15 TO 20
PERCENT) AS THERE IS LITTLE TO NO LOW-LEVEL FORCING. WITH THE
LACK OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SEVERE EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND MOISTURE ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
BY SUNDAY, THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FINALLY START TO BECOME A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THE PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE
GULF COAST BEGINS TO FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. DESPITE THIS
EVOLUTION, A SEPARATE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS WITH ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY EXPECTED AS A
RESULT, WITH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY CURRENTLY LOOKING FAIRLY
DRY AS THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME TEMPORARILY THINS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND EXTEND SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MOST OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM
EASTERN NM INTO NORTHWEST OK, WHICH COMBINED WITH A RESURGENCE OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS REGIONS.
PINPOINTING THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS ACTIVITY IS DIFFICULT AT
THIS LEAD TIME SO WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN BROAD POPS THROUGH THE
SUN-MON PERIOD, WITH A MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE STILL FAVORING THE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY TIMEFRAME AS THE PERIOD MOST
LIKELY TO SEE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERE
WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE UNLIKELY WITH WEAK SHEAR MAGNITUDES, BUT
DEEP MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS INITIALLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND CENTER OVER THE MS VALLEY AS DEEPER UPPER
TROUGHING ESTABLISHES OVER CA AND THE PACNW. THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A FETCH OF TROPICAL
PACIFIC MOISTURE TO MOVE OVERHEAD WHICH WILL THEN LIKELY LINGER FOR
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SET
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. SOME SHRA OR
AN ISOLATED TS IS POSSIBLE ESSENTIALLY ANYWHERE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, BUT PROBABILITY OF TERMINAL IMPACTS IS TOO LOW FOR SPECIFIC
TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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