782  
FXUS64 KLUB 282321  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
621 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
UPDATED AT 613 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025  
 
- VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT OFF THE CAPROCK.  
 
- BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHEN SOME HEAVY  
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE  
 
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF  
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025  
 
THIS AFTERNOON THE COMMONLY DISCUSSED MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME  
EXTENDS FROM AROUND EL PASO COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTH  
PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HUMID CONDITIONS  
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ON THE CAPROCK AND THE 70S OFF THE CAPROCK AND  
PWS OF OVER 1.50 INCHES) AND "LOWER" HIGH TEMPERATURES WE HAVE BEEN  
EXPERIENCING LATELY.  
 
ALL OF THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW TO OUR NW, THE  
MID LEVEL HIGH TO OUR SE AND THE SLOW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE  
TO ALLOW FOR STORMS TO POP UP AND THEN FALL BACK DOWN WITH OUTFLOWS  
TRIGGERING NEW STORMS AROUND THE DECAYED STORM. IN GENERAL WE CAN  
EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER AND IMPACTS AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...POP UP  
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL STAY SUB-SEVERE BUT COULD HAVE STRONG WIND  
GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THEM. RIGHT NOW CAMS SUGGEST  
THAT THE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY DUE TO INFLUENCES FROM THE MID  
LEVEL AND SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST, BUT IN THESE CONDITIONS IT WON'T  
TAKE MUCH TO TRIGGER A SUMMER TIME THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ESPECIALLY  
OUT WEST. THEREFORE, HAVE MAINTAINED BELOW MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH  
00Z THEN 10-152% THROUGH 06Z. TOMORROW, THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO  
OUR EAST EXPANDS FURTHER WEST SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACTIVITY AND  
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE.  
 
TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS CLOSE TO  
80 IN STONEWALL COUNTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MID  
TO UPPER 90S SIMILAR TO TODAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025  
 
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING INTO A TROUGH LOCATED OVER  
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY  
EVENING WILL SHARPEN THE PRE-EXISTING TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT  
LAKES DOWN TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS  
SHARPENING OF THE UPPER FLOW WILL DRIVE A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE  
FORECAST AREA WHICH SHOULD THEN SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO  
NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SHEAR PROFILES COMBINED WITH RICH,  
DEEP MOISTURE POINT TO A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT DURING THIS PERIOD.  
PRECIP CHANCES PEAK DURING THIS WINDOW AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS  
EASTWARD AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CONUS AT  
LEAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, THIS LOOKS TO BE A MORE  
LIKE A MONSOONAL SETUP AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE  
RIDGE AND KEEPING A CONNECTION TO ITS SOURCE REGION ALONG THE  
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING MAINLY  
AFTERNOON TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES AT OR A BIT BELOW  
NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025  
 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE REGION ARE NOT CURRENTLY  
ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT ANY TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE BUT NOT RISE TO  
THE LEVEL OF INCLUDING ANY LLWS IN THE TAF.  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...28  
LONG TERM....07  
AVIATION...01  
 
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