101
FXUS64 KLUB 291907
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
207 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 109 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
- RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD TO
THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. THIS AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY TO REACH
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES EARLY ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY RESULT IN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION DUE TO BOTH SURFACE HEATING AND A BIT OF
WEAKNESS ALOFT/COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION, SHOULD IT DEVELOP, WOULD BE MORE TEMPORAL IN NATURE.
THIS IS LIKELY LESS SO WITH A MORE LIKELY AREA OF STORMS ON THE HIGH
PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THIS BATCH OF STORMS WOULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE STAYING POWER INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN
GENERAL, BOTH THESE SCENARIOS WERE EXPECTED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIP CHANCES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHARPLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A SHARPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS SHOULD PUSH A SURFACE TROUGH SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN TIME FOR PEAK HEATING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FLOW ALOFT AND SHEAR MAGNITUDE WILL BOTH REMAIN WEAK, BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO STORM COVERAGE TO RESULT IN GOOD OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS AND SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO JUSTIFY PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORIES. TEMPERATURES,
PARTICULARLY TOMORROW'S HIGHS, WILL BE A BIT TRICKY. POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT, VARIABLE SURFACE FLOW SUGGEST THE
COOLER MOS VALUES MAY WORK OUT, BUT LATE JUNE AND NO CHANGE OF AIR
BEG THE NEED TO STICK WITH THE WARMER NBM NUMBERS FOR NOW.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
T-STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING AS A FRONT FOCUSES AND LIFTS ABUNDANT DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE. UPPER-LEVEL FORCING AND WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK HOWEVER,
SO IT APPEARS THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN DISORGANIZED, WHICH IN TURN
SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP HEAVY RAINFALL IN CHECK. HOWEVER WITH SLOW
CELL MOTION AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS NEAR THE SLOW-MOVING
FRONT, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE A THREAT. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD TEND TO SAG SOUTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE
BOUNDARY, ONLY TO REDEVELOP TUESDAY WITH MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AND
A WEAKNESS PRESENT IN THE HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT. IT'S UNCERTAIN HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY WE'LL BE ABLE TO GENERATE ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER, SO THE ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE
SHOWERY WITH LESS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL
PERSIST THOUGH, SO ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.
THE LATEST MED-RANGE PROGS SUGGEST THAT THE WEAKNESS IN THE
HEIGHT FIELD OVER WEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
AND WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME ALSO OVERHEAD, IT APPEARS
TO BE A GOOD SETUP FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES BOTH DAYS. WE MAY
SEE A PERIOD OF HIGHER POPS LATE THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH -
REMNANT OF A WEST COAST UPPER LOW - SLIDES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE OTHER STORY WILL BE THE RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S, BUT
PERHAPS SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY ONLY MAKE THE UPPER
70S ONE OR MORE DAYS, DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER.
AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES, FORECAST UNCERTAINTY GROWS FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STARTS TO DIVERGE ON THE CROSS
THE LOWER 48. IN GENERAL, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME INCREASE IN
RIDGING OVER THE REGION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH, WHICH
SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY
JULY, ALONG WITH A LOWER (BUT PROBABLY NOT ABSENT) CHANCE OF
RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
WILL RUN WITH A CLEAN, VFR SET OF TAFS, BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE
WILL COME FROM STORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WITH THOSE POSSIBLY REACHING KPVW/KLBB AFTER 03Z.
CONFIDENCE OF THAT REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT AND WILL KEEP
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS THIS PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
LUBBOCK TX 94 71 88 67 / 20 20 50 80
CHILDRESS TX 96 72 92 68 / 20 20 30 70
BROWNFIELD TX 93 69 89 66 / 20 30 50 80
LEVELLAND TX 91 68 86 64 / 20 30 50 80
PLAINVIEW TX 91 66 88 63 / 20 30 50 80
FRIONA TX 92 63 86 61 / 20 30 60 70
TAHOKA TX 93 72 89 67 / 20 20 50 80
ASPERMONT TX 97 75 95 69 / 10 20 30 60
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...07
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