618
FXUS64 KLUB 010438
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1138 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1136 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY
- RELATIVELY COOL TUESDAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY WINDS.
- BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN WARMER/HOTTER WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES
THEREAFTER.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PROVIDED WEAK FORCING FOR STORM TO INITIATE
YESTERDAY EVENING AND THE PERSISTENT UPPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME
WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND ALL DAY TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE LONGEVITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO
SLOW STORM MOTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS, HOWEVER NONE HAVE MET
SEVERE CRITERIA YET. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVERHEAD AS A
DEAMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH TRACKS OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CONUS
AND A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY TRACK ON SHORE OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
DUE TO THE EXPECTED SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
ON THE CAPROCK WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WHILE
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S OFF THE CAPROCK.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION. THE
PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND BELOW AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE, ALONG WITH DECENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
(GENERALLY PEAKING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS). GIVEN WEAK/NEBULOUS LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND MINIMAL
WIND SHEAR, OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED AND
PINPOINTING THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE FROM DAY-TO-DAY. HOWEVER, WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
IN PLACE AND WEAK STEERING FLOW, WHERE STORMS DO OCCUR THEY WILL
BRING THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND/OR BRIEF SMALL HAIL CORES COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION TOO, THOUGH THE OVERALL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
LOW.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EMERGE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL TEND TO THIN AND SHIFT THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THEREAFTER, UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR MORE
INSOLATION AND WARMING TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S FOR MOST THIS WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY,
RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL DWINDLE ALONG WITH THE DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE. THAT SAID, ENOUGH HEATING AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. REGARDING THE 4TH OF JULY, IT LOOKS PRETTY NICE WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT NEAR 90 DEGREES AND LOW (5%-15%) STORM CHANCES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS BEEN LOWER THAN EXPECTED SO
FAR THIS EVENING, BUT WE STILL EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS AT TIMES, WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF IMPACTS.
ASIDE FROM VSBLY AND CIG REDUCTIONS DURING SHRA AND TSRA, MORE
WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING, BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA-WIDE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...10
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