314  
FXUS64 KLUB 030532  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
1232 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
UPDATED AT 1229 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025  
 
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE  
THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
 
- NEAR ZERO PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY HOWEVER WILL RETURN SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.  
 
- WARMER AND DRYER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025  
 
RAINFALL CHANCES, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
CONTINUE TODAY. OVERALL, NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL  
PATTERNS. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER OUR REGION TODAY  
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL INVERTED DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE DESERT  
SOUTHWEST WILL TRACK OVER THE REGION BY TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY  
TROUGH PUSHES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHWESTERLY  
FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINS MOISTURE OVERHEAD WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75  
INCHES. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP THE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER  
60S TO 70S. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE, SHOWER CHANCES ARE  
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING ONCE WE HAVE REACHED  
PEAK HEATING. FORCING WILL BE WEAK, THEREFORE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT  
DO DEVELOP WILL BE SUB-SEVERE. BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, SHOWER  
AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO EAST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR.  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S  
TO LOWER 80S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025  
 
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON  
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR, BUT WE WILL FINALLY GET A BREAK  
FROM RAINFALL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER AND THE  
UPPER MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE  
BREAK DOESN'T LAST LONG AS SHOWER CHANCES RETURN LATE SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA  
AND NEW MEXICO, FILLING MOISTURE BACK IN OVER THE REGION. SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS  
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER PATTERN FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND.  
ECMWF INDICATES THE UPPER HIGH EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER OUR REGION AS A  
TROUGH BUILDS OFF THE SHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS INDICATES  
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN STAGNANT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS AN  
UPPER LOW BUILDS OFF THE SHORE OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. EITHER SET UP  
LOOKS TO KEEP NEAR ZERO POPS FOR THE REGION NEXT WEEK EXCEPT FOR  
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S WILL BE A  
THING OF THE PAST AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO THE 90S  
BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025  
 
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24  
HOURS WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT  
ALL TAF SITES WITH IFR LIKELY AT KLBB AND KPVW. HOWEVER, WITH RAIN  
SHOWERS IN THE AREA THIS MORNING, CIGS COULD BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN  
IFR AND MVFR AND MAY NOT STAY SOLIDLY IN ONE CATEGORY.  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...10  
LONG TERM....10  
AVIATION...01  
 
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