226
FXUS64 KLUB 040547
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1247 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1231 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
- WARMER AND DRYER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
AFTER DAYS OF SHOWERS, WE WILL FINALLY GET A BREAK TODAY. THE
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A
HIGH BUILDS OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME WILL MOVE AWAY AS SUBSIDENCE FILLS IN OVERHEAD FROM THE HIGH
TO OUR EAST. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, HOWEVER CHANCES REMAIN OVER EASTERN PORTIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDY SKIES WILL DIMINISH WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY
ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S OVER
WESTERN ZONES. CLOUDY SKIES THAT LINGER OVER EASTERN ZONES THROUGH
THE EVENING WILL KEEP EASTERN ZONES COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY EAST
OF THE DRYLINE AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. WITH THESE TWO PARAMETERS IN PLAY, AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, HOWEVER CHANCES REMAIN LOW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FILLS BACK IN
OVER THE REGION AND PREVAILING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. A DRYLINE REMAINS OVER THE TX/NM BORDER
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE, THERE ARE CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL, STRONG WIND GUSTS, AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. DRY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND ONWARDS
AS AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS STAGNANT OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BUT
LOOKS TO EXPAND TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. BY MID-WEEK, AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S REGION WIDE BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF NEW
MEXICO THAT COULD PUSH INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION
EVERY EVENING FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, HOWEVER THE CHANCES
ARE LOW AT THE MOMENT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
MORNING WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE CLEARS OUT OF THE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE MOISTURE CLEARS OUT THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01
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