432  
FXUS64 KLUB 041745  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
1245 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 1238 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
 
- MILD AND MOIST TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY  
MORNING.  
 
- HUMID AND SEASONABLY WARM/HOT, WITH A CHANCE OF EVENING STORMS  
SATURDAY.  
 
- WARMER DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. RELATIVELY  
LOW RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY  
EVENING.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
 
IT REMAINS QUITE HUMID OUT, WITH MIDDAY DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE  
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S! HOWEVER, DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST  
ALOFT, WHICH IS HELPING TO SCATTER AND LIFT THE STRATUS AND LIMIT  
PRECIPITATION LOCALLY. THAT SAID, WE DID SEE A FEW TINY SHOWERS IN  
THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLIER, AND DESPITE BEING SMALL, THEY WERE  
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS IF YOU WERE UNDER THEM. FOR EXAMPLE, THE  
ASPERMONT WTM PICKED UP 0.75 INCHES FROM ONE SHOWER. ISOLATED  
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON,  
THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. OTHERWISE, INCREASED INSOLATION  
WILL RESULT IN A WARM AFTERNOON (COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS), AND WITH  
THE HUMIDITY, IT WILL FEEL EVEN WARMER. THE SURFACE FLOW IS VEERING  
IN EASTERN NM, AND THE DRYLINE IS PROGGED TO MIX INTO OUR WESTERN  
ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF ISOLATED  
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE LATE TODAY, BUT DRYING  
ALOFT IN COMBINATION WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE  
MCS DOWNSTATE (THAT HAS PRODUCED EXTREME FLOODING IN PARTS OF  
CENTRAL TEXAS) WILL LIKELY KEEP DEEP MOIST CONVECTION FROM FORMING  
LOCALLY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AND HAVE  
MAINTAINED THE NON-MENTIONABLE POPS FROM THE NBM.  
 
LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND THE VERY HUMID LOW-  
LEVELS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPMENT  
TONIGHT. HENCE, WE HAVE ADDED A PATCHY FOG MENTION AREA WIDE FROM 08-  
14Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER, THE STRATUS/FOG WILL LIFT/SCATTER, LEADING  
TO ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS  
EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NM AND  
PERHAPS DOWN THE DRYLINE, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE IN EASTERN NM  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY COULD MOVE INTO OUR  
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES, BUT IT WOULD LIKELY BE AFTER 00Z.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
 
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SHOWING CONTINUED WARMER DRIER  
AIR IN THE REGION AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S.  
RELATIVELY MILD SUMMER HIGHS NEAR 90 OR LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN WARMING TO THE UPPER 90S LATER IN THE  
WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE, JUST SHOWING  
ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND THEN DROPPING FROM THE  
FORECAST BUT SLIGHT CHANCES RETURNING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.  
WE RAISED THE POPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE NBM SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE  
NORTHWEST COUNTIES.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
 
CLOUDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AND SCATTERING AT THE TERMINALS  
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT  
ANY OF THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE VFR PREVAILS. THERE IS  
A SLIM SHOT OF A SHOWER OR STORM AT CDS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT  
CONFIDENCE IN AN IMPACT IS LOW. OTHERWISE, VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO  
THIS EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPS  
ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE MVFR AT THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT  
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THOUGH CONDITIONS COULD DIP TO IFR AT  
TIMES.  
 
 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...23  
LONG TERM....04  
AVIATION...23  
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