205
FXUS64 KLUB 071753
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1253 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1221 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
- STORM CHANCES CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY EVENING, WITH DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- ISOLATED STORMS MAY RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
THIS MORNING'S MCS HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED COMPLETELY AS OF LATE
MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM IT HAS BROUGHT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT WITH POST-OUTFLOW NORTH WINDS ALREADY VEERING
AROUND TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION WILL
RECOMMENCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FAVORED AREA OF AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION REMAINS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
VERY MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW POINT TO A GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAKING AT LEAST INTO THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY AREA OF POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IS WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS SWRN KANSAS/NWRN OKLAHOMA
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER EARLY MORNING MCS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE LATTER SCENARIO, AND NBM IS
BASICALLY DRY 06Z-18Z. WILL LEAVE THAT FOR NOW, BUT THAT IS
SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THIS EVENING TO EARLY MORNING
WITH PRECIP CHANCES POSSIBLY NEEDING TO BE EXTENDED SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. FINALLY, TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD BRING
A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION INSIDE THE FORECAST AREA,
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD. THIS IS PARTLY PENDING
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TONIGHT AND RESULTANT BOUNDARIES AND QUALITY OF
AIR MASS, BUT POTENTIAL FOR BOTH UPSLOPE FLOW AND REACHING
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES POINT TO NBM SLIGHT CHANCE BEING JUSTIFIED.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. HAD TO
INCREASE POPS ABOUT NBM. WEVER, UPPER ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE WARM AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
DECREASE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD PUSH TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S WITH BY THIS WEEKEND, THE
SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL DRIFT FURTHER
WEST POSSIBLY BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
WILL RUN WITH CLEAN AND SIMPLE TAFS FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TS THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT TO EARLY TUESDAY. SINCE CONFIDENCE ON HOW TS
PLAYS OUT AND THERE IS TIME TO ADJUST TAFS WILL KEEP MENTION OUT
AT THIS TIME.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07
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