398
FXUS64 KLUB 081712
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1212 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1211 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN EACH AFTERNOON
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
A 500 MB LEVEL HIGH REMAINS STALLED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY.
WAVES PROPAGATING AROUND IT, COMBINED WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE AS
WELL AS BUILDING DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MOST POTENT WAVE TRACKING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA, AND AVERAGE MODEL CAPE
REMAINS IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
REGARDS TO SPECIFIC PLACEMENT OF STORMS DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE, IN GENERAL, AREAS ON THE CAPROCK LOOK TO BE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND BROAD CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
RETAINED IN THE LATEST FORECAST. IN ANY CASE, THESE CHANCES WILL
LINGER UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. PWATS ARE AVERAGING AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AND WITH THE MONSOONAL ASPECT TO THE MOISTURE, HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER, UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 65 MPH CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. STORMS WILL TAPER
OFF BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
QUIET, WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS SHIFTING SE IN THE AFTERNOON, MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES, AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-TO-LID 90S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
THE LONGTERM FORECAST FOR DRYER AND WARMER CONDITIONS DURING THE
WEEK AND THE RETURN OF STORM CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK IS STILL ON
PAR. THE UPPER HIGH SITTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL FLATTEN
AND EXPAND LATITUDINALLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS NORTH OF THE
RIDGE. HOWEVER, THE EXPANSION OF THE HIGH WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON THE
UPPER FLOW OR HEIGHTS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THICKNESS VALUES
WILL INCREASE BY MID-WEEK DUE TO PRESSURE FALLS. ADDITIONALLY, SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL AS LEE SURFACE TROUGHING
DEVELOPS. GREATER THICKNESSES AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMING WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TRACKS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE SHORTWAVE IN COMBINATION WITH MOIST
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS, THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP OFF
THE RATON MESA. WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST AND TRACK INTO OUR REGION ESPECIALLY FOR
THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, AS CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW, NBM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT. BY THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER HIGH WILL BACK OFF
TO THE WEST AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST. MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED TO TRACK OVER THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW PERSISTS BRINGING IN GULF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT KPVW AND KLBB
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOWER END, VCTS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THESE RESPECTIVE TAFS.
GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY WOULD ACCOMPANY ANY
STORM OVER THE SITE. OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...19
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