639
FXUS64 KLUB 281104
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
604 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 602 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PACKAGE IS A COLD FRONT THAT IS
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER RIDGING
SETS UP OVER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND TROUGHING
HAS TAKEN OVER EASTERN CONUS. THIS UPPER PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE
RETURN OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION. ON THE SURFACE,
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE
TO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT MOST OF OUR
WESTERN ZONES. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST
THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. WESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO THE 90S FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS COULD POSSIBLY REACH TRIPLE
DIGIT HIGHS. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, WESTERN ZONES WILL DRY OUT
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH, THEREFORE THE
GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND ROLLING PLAINS. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW EVENING WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES JUST UNDER 1500 J/KG. WE COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND
1.25 INCHES. STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO TREK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. STORMS WILL
DIMINISH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AND
STALLS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE UPPER TROUGHING OVER
NORTHEASTERN CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. A NORTHEASTERLY JET
STREAK BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL SET UP RIGHT OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE USHERING IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THE STORMS FROM
THURSDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT HAS
CLEARED THE REGION AND STALLED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AS
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE, UPPER ASCENT FROM THE JET STREAK, AND UPSLOPE
SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND TRACK INTO
OUR REGION. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
FRIDAY EVENING AND EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOW WITH STORMS FRIDAY EVENING,
HOWEVER COULD EXPECT A SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO PROPAGATE FAST, BUT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN CONUS WILL FINALLY PUSH
EASTWARD AS AN UPPER HIGH TRACKING OVER CANADA GIVE THE UPPER
TROUGHING A MUCH NEEDED PUSH. THROUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL SHIFT, THE
NORTHEASTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE MOIST JET STREAK AND MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
TRACKING ALOFT WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIMILAR SET UP AS
FRIDAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND TRACKING INTO OUR REGION. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WITH
PWATS UP TO 2.25 INCHES. HOWEVER, THE EXTENT AND TIMING OF STORMS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE ENVIRONMENT FOLLOWING FRIDAY
EVENING STORMS AND LINGERING BOUNDARIES. CURRENT STORM TOTAL QPF FOR
THE ENTIRE WEEKEND INDICATES SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE UP TO 3 INCHES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DWINDLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGING EXPANDS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND TROUGHING ONCE
AGAIN TAKES OVER EASTERN CONUS CUTTING OFF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
AS FLOW ALOFT VEERS TO THE NORTH. COOLER AIR FOLLOWING THE FRONT AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVENTING THE FULL EXTENT OF DIURNAL HEATING
WILL COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE GRADUALLY
WARMING BY MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. TS
A POSSIBILITY MAINLY AT KCDS AS THE FRONT PASSES THERE, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...07
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