190
FXUS64 KLUB 290520
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1220 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CHANCES FOR FLOODING.
- STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FLOODING
POTENTIAL AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
TODAY WILL BE THE START TO A FEW DAYS OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT FROM YESTERDAY HAS
CLEARED THE REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL SLIGHTLY OUTSIDE
OF THE CWA OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE LINGERING STORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED
TO CLEAR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THE REST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW USHERING IN COOL AIR WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. A WIDE RANGE OF
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWER 80S OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND LOWER 90S OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PACKAGE IS THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING THIS EVENING AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATION TRACKS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TODAY.
UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN MEXICO
AS AN UPPER TROUGH SITS OVER NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THE CWA SITS
DIRECTLY UNDER THE PATH OF THE NORTHWESTERLY JET STREAK BETWEEN THE
TWO UPPER DISTURBANCES. UPPER MOISTURE HAS FILLED IN OVER THE REGION
AS WELL DUE TO A SUBTROPICAL PLUME RIDING THE APEX OF THE RIDGE INTO
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ON THE SURFACE, PREVAILING EASTERLY
WINDS WILL USHER IN SURFACE MOISTURE INCREASING DEWPOINTS TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY THIS AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL
AIDE IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND TRACK INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING. SOME MODELS INDICATE THESE CLUSTERS OF STORM COULD ORGANIZE
INTO AN MCS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND TREK SOUTHEAST.
THIS IS PLAUSIBLE WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30
KNOTS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES
AROUND 2000 J/KG, HOWEVER HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT
THIS EVENING. SOUTHEAST PROROGATION OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUICK AROUND 30 KNOTS, HOWEVER FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL PER HOUR WITH THESE STORMS
WITH PWATS JUST BELOW 2 INCHES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AS STORMS FROM FRIDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT, BUT ARE SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST
BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SLIGHT
LULL IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THIS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE STATE OF
THE ENVIRONMENT FOLLOWING OVERNIGHT STORMS. AS THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT
THE TIME, NBM POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. THE DEAMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGING WILL SETTLE OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES THROUGH CENTRAL
CONUS. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVELS WILL SLIGHTLY CHANGE, THE NORTHWESTERLY
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MAINTAIN OVER THE REGION. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY,
PREDOMINATELY EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL USHER IN SURFACE
MOISTURE MAINTAINING DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH THE UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW AND TRACK INTO OUR
REGION. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MUCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG AND SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS. HOWEVER, THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL PER HOUR.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. STORM TOTAL QPF FOR THE
WEEKEND HAS INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH SOME AREAS
POTENTIALLY SEEING UP TO 4-5 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK BEFORE GRADUALLY WARMING BY
MID-WEEK. THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL EXPAND UP THE
ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGHING OVERTAKES EASTERN
CONUS AGAIN. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL CHANGE AS WELL AS MAINTAIN AN UPPER JET OVERHEAD. MODELS
INDICATE ANOTHER FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION LATER NEXT WEEK
BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
POST-FRONTAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL SEE THOSE CEILINGS DECREASE WITH TIME INTO IFR CATEGORY EARLY
THIS MORNING. IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF TSRA TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD IS THE
NEXT ISSUE. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORMS REACH THE TERMINALS NEAR
OR AFTER 06Z SATURDAY, SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP TS MENTION OUT OF THE
TAFS WITH A REEVALUATION OF THAT COMING IN THE NEXT TAF CYCLE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...07
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