340
FXUS64 KLUB 291814
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
114 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 114 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
- THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- CHANCES FOR STORMS, SOME SEVERE, RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
AND WILL INCREASE QUICKLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
- A GREATER RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING EXISTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE THIS EARLY AFTERNOON REVEALS AN ANTICYCLONIC
WAVE BREAK NEARING ITS COMPLETION OVER NORTHERN CANADA, CAUSING THE
LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. TO BEGIN PIVOTING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. FARTHER WEST, A TRAIN
OF VORTICITY LOBES WERE ANALYZED ON WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, WITH ANOTHER
LESSER-DEFINED VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING OVER THE SLOT CANYON REGION
OF UT. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS STARTED ITS GRADUAL SHIFT EASTWARD,
WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC VORTEX REMAINING NEARLY ALIGNED THROUGH 200
MB, PER THE 29/12Z OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED UA CHARTS. THE 250 MB JET
STREAK WAS ANALYZED BETWEEN 50-70 KT, DEPENDING ON THE RAOB, WITH
ITS CORE ARCING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND ITS LEADING
EDGE NOSING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
TENDENCIES HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK AND
THE TRAIN OF PV ANOMALIES THAT HAVE SINCE PROPAGATED EASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER 48. DAMPENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS IMPINGES ON ITS AMPLITUDE AND THE CENTER
OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. LOW-LEVEL
STRATUS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ERODE, WITH THE THICK STRATUS AND
BILLOW FIELD TRANSITIONING INTO SHALLOW CLOUD STREETS ACROSS ALONG A
LINE FROM CVN-LBB-SNK. A SHALLOW, NORTHWESTWARD-PROPAGATING GRAVITY
WAVE, GENERATED BY THE COLLAPSED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS PAST
MORNING OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN, HAS ACCELERATED THE EROSION OF THE
BILLOW FIELD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD DECK.
AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA YESTERDAY
HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY. IT IS LOCATED ALONG THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS, BENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX
BIG BEND AND EXTENDS ALL THE WAY INTO CENTRAL TX BETWEEN THE I-10
AND I-20 CORRIDORS. THE CWA IS WITHIN A BROAD FETCH OF MOIST,
UPSLOPE FLOW, WITH POST-FRONTAL WINDS PREVAILING OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST ON MESONET AND METAR DATA. DESPITE THE DIFFERENTIAL MIXING
THAT IS UNDERWAY, DEWPOINTS RANGED BETWEEN 65-69 DEGREES FROM
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA, INDICATING THAT THERE HAS
ACTUALLY BEEN A POSITIVE FEEDBACK WITH RESPECT TO THE MOISTENING OF
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE POST-FRONTAL
SURFACE HIGH WAS WEAK, WITH AN ILL-DEFINED CENTER ANALYZED ON
MESONET AND METAR DATA IN FAR SOUTHERN KS AND NORTHWESTERN OK. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, AS THE SURFACE HIGH DISPERSES AND TRANSITIONS INTO RETURN
FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLOGENESIS
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TX PH TO THE
MIDDLE-UPPER 80S ONTO THE CAPROCK, TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE QUICKLY BY SUNSET FOR
LOCALES NEAR THE NM STATE LINE, WITH CHANCES INCREASING FARTHER EAST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CAPROCK AND INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AFTER
DARK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS ROTATING THROUGH THE APEX
OF THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE WILL GENERATE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GRADUAL UPSCALE
GROWTH INTO A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED LINE EXPECTED AS IT APPROACHES THE
NM/TX STATE LINE. THE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER BENEATH CLOUD BASE
WILL FACILITATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-TO-SEVERE-CALIBER WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH, BUT THIS RISK SHOULD BE LOCALIZED THROUGH
THE LATE-EVENING AS OUTFLOW-RELATED THETA DEFICITS CAUSE COLD POOLS
TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY CORES TOWARDS 05Z/MIDNIGHT CDT
TONIGHT. BLENDED TPW (TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER) FROM GOES-19
INDICATES A PLUME OF 1.50-1.75" PWATS ADVECTING OVER THE CWA, WHICH
ALSO MATCHES THE 12Z RAOB FROM WFO MAF AND RECENT MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS. THE COMBINATION OF THE MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
ESTIMATES, IN ADDITION TO THE 12Z RAOB, INDICATES THAT PWATS ARE AT
OR EXCEEDING THE 99TH PERCENTILE OVER THE CWA WHEN INTERPOLATING THE
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FROM WFOS AMA AND MAF. THEREFORE, THE LOOSELY-
ORGANIZED LINE(S) OF STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EFFICIENT
RAINFALL, WITH RAIN RATES BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER, THE INITIAL EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF
THE SYSTEM WILL BE AT AROUND 25 KT, BEFORE A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN
OCCURS AS THE COMPLEX PROPAGATES ALONG THE THICKNESS GRADIENT,
KEEPING FLASH FLOODING LOCALIZED AS THE POTENTIAL FOR BACK-BUILDING
IS COUNTERACTED BY DOWNSHEAR CORFIDI VECTORS TRANSITIONING TO THE
NORTHWEST TO NEAR 30 KT AFTER DARK. THE LACK OF MID-LEVEL SUPPORT
TONIGHT SHOULD CURB THE POTENTIAL FOR REAR-INFLOW JET DEVELOPMENT,
WITH OUTFLOW EVENTUALLY ACCELERATING AHEAD OF THE BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE COMPLEX OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE CWA NEAR OR AFTER
SUNRISE, WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ABOVE THE
STABILIZED, DECOUPLED BOUNDARY-LAYER. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL
BE ELEVATED, WITH A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED BY THE
LATE-MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. NBM POPS WERE REMOVED ALMOST COMPLETELY
DURING THIS TIME (30/15-18Z, OR 10 AM-1 PM CDT), WITH LOW-LEVEL
STRATUS THICKENING BENEATH RESIDUAL ANVIL DEBRIS ALOFT. THE SURFACE
PATTERN SHOULD BE CONVECTIVELY-CONTAMINATED, WITH GRADIENT WINDS
FORECAST TO RESTORE TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
FROM THE LEEWARD PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING IN EASTERN NM BENEATH THE
NEXT INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DIFFERENTIAL DIABATIC HEATING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO MIDDLE 80S, AND TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD DUE TO POTENTIAL DELAYS IN SURFACE
HEATING. REGARDLESS, HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED ON THE
PROSPECT FOR ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LINGERING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WOULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR INITIATION,
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS A LINGERING MCV. NBM POPS WERE LOWERED FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CAPPED AT 50-PERCENT, AS COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CHECK UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE AIRMASS EXPECTED, SIMILAR HAZARDS COMPARED TO FRIDAY WILL
ACCOMPANY STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH LOW-END, SEVERE WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SINCAVAGE
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
A HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS,
A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND EJECT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. FARTHER
SOUTH, THE CENTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER
CENTRAL TX, WITH THE CORRESPONDING JET STREAKS ROUNDING THE APEX OF
THE RIDGE BECOMING DAMPENED INTO A QUASI-ZONAL STATE FOLLOWING THE
EMERGENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION TO THE
250 MB JET STREAK WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE CWA ACCORDINGLY,
WHILE THE BELT OF STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE
NORTHWEST. INTENSE, HIGH-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ATOP A PLUME OF MODERATE
CAPE NEAR 2,000 J/KG FOR MOST-UNSTABLE PARCELS; AND DEEP-LAYER
HODOGRAPHS BECOMING MORE-ELONGATED THAN FRIDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES TO NEAR 30 KT SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS TO SURGE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
THICKNESS GRADIENT.
A BETTER RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING EXISTS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY AFTER THE PREDECESSOR RAINFALL EVENT THE NIGHT
BEFORE. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT CONTENT, STILL AT OR IN EXCEEDANCE OF
THE 99TH PERCENTILE, AMIDST MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 2,000 J/KG, WILL
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN RATES POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 2"/HR
WITH STRONGER CELLS. THE MITIGATING FACTOR FOR A MORE-SUBSTANTIAL
FLASH FLOODING RISK WILL BE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE MCS, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BE AT AROUND 30 KT TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SEVERE WIND
THREAT REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR, AT LEAST DURING THE HOURS LEADING
TOWARDS SUNRISE, BUT 50+ MPH GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON IN THE
EVENT AS THE MCS MOVES INTO THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT (POSSIBLY
NEAR MIDNIGHT/CROSSING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING). EVENTUALLY,
OUTFLOW SHOULD ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE MCS AND END THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE-CALIBER GUSTS. TOTAL QPF CONTINUES TO VARY, BUT THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN MULTIPLE SWATHS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN DEFERRED TO SUBSEQUENT PACKAGES.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING, WITH MOST
OF THE CWA CLEARING OUT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A POST-MCS HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION BENEATH INCREASING CONFLUENCE ALOFT. POPS
WERE REMOVED FOR MOST OF THE CWA, BUT A COUPLE OF LATE-DAY SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET, WITH MINIMAL CONCERNS
FOR FLASH FLOODING AND/OR STRONG GUSTS. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
IS NOW FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. GLOBAL NWP GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NATION BY MID-WEEK, WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RENEWED STORM CHANCES ARE
FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SINCAVAGE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
CLOUDS LIFT THIS AFTERNOON TO MVFR/VFR. STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THIS EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. THERE ARE SOME CONFIDENCE
ISSUES WITH FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES OVERNIGHT RELATED TO THE
PROPAGATION OF THE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THINGS WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR
UP SATURDAY MORNING IN TIME FOR MOST ARRIVALS IN THE AFTERNOON.
ANB/GRF
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...99/26
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