698
FXUS64 KLUB 310539
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1239 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1235 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
10 AM CDT SUNDAY.
- A FEW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
GENERALLY DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- STORM CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
WATER VAPOR CHANNEL IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS A NOTABLE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN
THE AREA OF BEST MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. POCKETS OF ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
ABOUT MID-MORNING, BUT OVERALL IT APPEARS THAT GENERALLY WEAK LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL KEEP COVERAGE OF STORMS RELATIVELY
LIMITED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. AFTER
ANY MORNING SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY DISSIPATES BY MIDDAY, THE REST
OF TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER-WISE AS MIDLEVEL
HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY WITH OUR AREA BEING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF BUILDING RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW. TEMPERATURES
ARE NEVERTHELESS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY GIVEN NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THERE IS A SLIM
CHANCE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SW TX PANHANDLE IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO
LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE, BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND LIMITED IN COVERAGE. THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND SEASONABLE
LOWS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH LARGE-AMPLITUDE RIDGING POSITIONED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND MOST OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
ALTHOUGH THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION, THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN
GENERALLY QUIET DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD
THROUGH TUESDAY. STILL, ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY PERSIST ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE RIDGING TO OUR WEST TO SUPPORT A COUPLE OF SHORT-
LIVED STORMS ON MONDAY EVENING, BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED AND GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE
LEVELS AT THIS TIME. DESPITE THE CENTER OF THE RIDGING ALOFT
CENTERING TO OUR WEST, SFC-500MB LAYER THICKNESS WILL NOT DECREASE
MUCH WHICH WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON
FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STORM CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY
FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO A SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE OR CLOSED LOW
DIVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, BUT PREDICTABILITY AT THIS
RANGE IS LOW. ALSO UNCERTAIN DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD IS
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF THE WESTERN RIDGE EXPANDING
EASTWARD AND OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS HIGHLIGHTING MORE EXPANSIVE
TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER OUR AREA. WILL MAINTAIN BLENDED GUIDANCE
FOR BOTH POPS AND TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, BUT ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS A WARMER THAN AVERAGE END TO THE WEEK AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
ISOLATED TS EASTERN PANHANDLE MIGHT AFFECT KCDS IN THE FIRST
COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
MAY MAKE SOME HEADWAY INTO WEST TEXAS, BUT CHANCES OF REACHING
KLBB AND KPVW ARE SLIM. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LOW CLOUD AND FOG
POTENTIAL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT IS AT KCDS BUT KPVW AND KLBB
COULD GET IN ON THE ACTION. AFTERNOON TS DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO BE
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ021>044.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...07
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