512
FXUS64 KLUB 092329
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
629 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 627 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
- A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING MAINLY NW OF A CHILDRESS TO MORTON LINE. SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBILITY SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SMALL
HAIL.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
GENERALIZED RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM PRESENTLY COMING ASHORE THE OREGON COAST.
A RIBBON OF MODEST JET-LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND ACROSS NORTHERN NM
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WHICH IS TOO WEAK TO GIVE MUCH OF A SIGNAL
ON WV IMAGERY. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WE'LL SEE THIS FEATURE DIG
INTO NORCAL BY WEDNESDAY EVENING RESULTING IN A JET STREAK
SITUATED FROM SOCAL INTO THE WASATCH RANGE.
RIDGING AT H5 WILL BE THE STORY OF THE DAY IN THIS PART OF THE
COUNTRY AND THE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE FEATURE. IN THIS REGION, WERE SOME WEAK BROAD-SCALE LIFT
EXISTS, WE'LL SEE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON
THEN SPREADING EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY WANE AFTER 00Z/WED BUT SOME SHOWERS
COULD LINGER. ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE INVERTED-V PROFILES SUGGEST AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR ECTOMORPHIC CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AFFORDING A FEW
POSSIBLE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AROUND DINNER TIME
THIS EVENING (TUESDAY). WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, WE SHOULD
ALSO SEE THE LOSS OF STORMS THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW HINTS THAT
SHOWERS COULD LINGER A BIT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE NW
OF A CDS TO MORTON LINE INCREASING AS ONE GOES NW. INTO WEDNESDAY,
OUR NORTHWESTERN FOUR COUNTIES OR SO MIGHT GET ANOTHER SHOT AT A FEW
STORMS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
THE PACIFIC COAST LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY SLOWLY ONLY MAKING IT TO THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE ROCKIES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE A
COMPLEX INTERACTION IS INDICATED TO TAKE PLACE WITH THE MERGER OF
ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING ASHORE BRITISH COLUMBIA. AFTER THINGS SETTLE
OUT, ANOTHER SLOWLY TRANSLATING TROUGH SHOULD TRACK SIMILARLY
MAKING IT TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ROCKIES BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AT PRESENT, WE'RE ADVERTISING LOW END RAIN CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY IN OUR CWFA THOUGH INTERESTINGLY, THE SUGGESTION
OF A FRONT IS LARGELY UNREALIZED GIVEN THE LACK OF EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW/TROUGH AS IT POTENTIALLY IS
ABSORBED BY THE NEXT SYSTEM. IT WILL BE AN INTERESTING PATTERN TO
WATCH. AS AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO, IF THE MERGER DOES NOT OCCUR,
WE COULD SEE A COLD FRONT DRIVEN INTO THE AREA. STILL, WILL LET
THE AGGREGATED BLEND RUN GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED.
JUST BEYOND THE VALID PERIOD, THERE IS ANOTHER SHOT OF A COLD
FRONT ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW. TURNING A BIT MORE TO THE EXTENDED,
THE MJO, WHILE HAVING A VERY WEAK SIGNAL, SUGGESTS A DECENT COLD
FRONT AROUND THE 30TH OF THIS MONTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY SET TO COOL OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS WE EDGE
TOWARD AUTUMN. THE 90S OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD BE REPLACED BY
MID TO UPPER 80S BY MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MIGHT BUILD
SOUTHWARD TOWARD KPVW EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND IS WORTHY OF
PUTTING A VCTS WORDING THERE. MORE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS TS
CHANCES AT KCDS AND KLBB, ALTHOUGH THE FORMER HAS A BETTER CHANCE
THAN THE LATTER. WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THOSE TWO TAFS AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WILL ALSO RUN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAN PREVIOUS MORNINGS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...07
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