110
FXUS64 KLUB 100538
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1238 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
- DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
- LOW STORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
03Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A PARTIAL BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE
LOWER 48, WITH A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONE ROTATING OVER THE KLAMATH
MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN; A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
OVER THE ENTIRE HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM W TX INTO SASKATCHEWAN; AND
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE
DIVERGENT OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY THE PRESENCE OF A QUASI-ZONAL 250 MB
JET STREAK HAD PREVIOUSLY GENERATED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN NM AND W TX, AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY DUE TO
THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AND LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. FARTHER WEST, A CONVECTIVELY-AUGMENTED, SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATION TRANSLATING THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS GENERATED
ANOTHER CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS OVER CENTRAL NM. SINCE THESE
STORMS ARE ELEVATED AND PROPAGATING BENEATH THE FAVORABLE ZONE OF
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, THE THINKING IS THAT THE CLUSTER WILL ARRIVE NEAR
THE TX STATE LINE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST FOR THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TX PH AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS BETWEEN 09-15Z AS THE WEAKENING STORMS ARRIVE. SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS FROM LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND AS THE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION PROPAGATES EASTWARD.
THE SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY (NOTWITHSTANDING
SOME CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION IN THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PH, WHICH HAS
SINCE RECOVERED), WITH A DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH BISECTING THE CWA
ALONG A LINE FROM HRX-PVW-SNK AND ANOTHER ONE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF
THE NM STATE LINE. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REMAINS INTACT, ALTHOUGH
DEWPOINTS ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER DUE TO THE IMPROVED MIXING
DEPTHS AS THE CENTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO CENTER
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. SURFACE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN DIFFUSE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE DAILY OSCILLATION OF
WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN CO. A PERSISTENCE FORECASTING HAS BEEN APPLIED FOR
WEDNESDAY, WITH SIMILAR MIXING HEIGHTS AND FULL INSOLATION CAUSING
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE LOWER-MIDDLE 90S ONCE AGAIN. BY THE
MID-AFTERNOON HOURS, A HIGH-BASED CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP, BUT WILL BE
SUPPRESSED VIA WARM MID-LEVELS (I.E., SUBSIDENCE). STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, WITH BENIGN WEATHER TO FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY.
SINCAVAGE
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH INDICATIONS OF A POTENTIAL OMEGA BLOCK TO FORM
OVER THE LOWER 48 FOLLOWING THE DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE IN THE
WESTERN U.S. IT APPEARS THAT THE TROUGHING PIVOTING TOWARDS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD MAY REMAIN OPEN, BUT WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO PROGRESS
DUE TO ANOMALOUS RIDGING IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT, SIMILAR
SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAYS ARE
EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GLOBAL NWP GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE FORMATION OF GYRE-LIKE, CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND, AS A TRAIN OF PV ANOMALIES
EMANATING FROM AN INTENSE, QUASI-ZONAL JET STREAK EXTENDING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE COMPLETION OF AN ANTICYCLONIC WAVE
BREAK WILL ALSO FACILITATE A SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN
TROUGHING IRRESPECTIVE IF A GYRE FORMS DUE TO THE NORTHERN-STREAM
JET STREAK SHIFTING POLEWARD INTO ARCTIC LATITUDES.
NBM POPS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ASSESSMENTS, MOST
NOTABLY ON THE CAPROCK, ALTHOUGH POPS MAY CONTINUE TO CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL THERE IS A BETTER HANDLE BY THE NWP
GUIDANCE ON THE AMPLITUDE AND POSITION OF THE LEADING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AS IT EJECTS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. REGARDLESS, CONFIDENCE IN
AT LEAST BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ENCOMPASSING THE CWA THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS INCREASING. DEPENDING ON THE GEOMETRY OF THE
CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE REGION, BOTH DRYLINE AND
ANAFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAKENING PACIFIC COLD
FRONT EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SINCAVAGE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A VERY LOW CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS IS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...01
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