158
FXUS64 KLUB 111848
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
148 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1258 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE CAPROCK.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES DIP CLOSER TO NORMAL NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OVERALL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
QUIET WEATHER HOLDS TIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER A PROMINENT RIDGE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN 850-700 MB LAYER IS SHOWN TO TICK HIGHER BY FRIDAY
AS A H7 HIGH DRIFTS FARTHER FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO EASTERN OK,
SO THIS WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZIER AFTERNOON WITH WINDS IN THE 15-20
MPH RANGE. THICKNESSES DO NUDGE LOWER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, SO
HIGHS SHOULD END UP A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN TODAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT BEGINS WITH RIDGING ALOFT SHOVING FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OF
WEST TX AHEAD OF A DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH CRESTING THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. THIS WILL SUBJECT OUR AREA TO INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC SW FLOW
ALOFT COMPLETE WITH A FETCH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. WHILE THIS SOUNDS
LIKE A GREAT RECIPE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN OUR AREA, WE'RE
NOTICING MORE THAN A FEW CHINKS IN THE ARMOR OF THIS PATTERN. THE
BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
JET BY SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH TAKES THE BEST ASCENT INTO THE WESTERN
TX PANHANDLE. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS ALL BUT OUR FAR NW ZONES WELL
SOUTH OF THE UPPER JET WHICH RESULTS IN PROLONGED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION CAN OFFSET THESE LARGER SCALE CONCERNS,
BUT UNFORTUNATELY A LARGE DEFICIT IN PWATS CURRENTLY NOTED ALONG THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST IS PROGGED TO ADVECT CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
HIGH AND INTO MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL FURTHER DELAY TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WITHIN THE
APPROACHING MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME, SO POPS HAVE TRENDED LOWER
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND MAY NEED FURTHER ADJUSTMENT DOWN.
CLOSER TO THE TX/NM BORDER IS WHERE THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE STANDS
ITS BEST CHANCE OF SATURATING THESE DRIER LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, SO HAVE KEPT LIKELY RAIN CHANCES THERE FROM LATE IN
THE DAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WHEN WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE. PWATS
BY THIS TIME PEAK AT AROUND 1.5" WHICH COMBINED WITH A GENERAL
SW-NE TRAINING MOTION COULD YIELD SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SOUNDINGS
DURING THIS TIME SHOW DEEP, UNIDIRECTIONAL SW FLOW WHICH ARGUES A
POTENTIALLY SHARP W-E GRADIENT IN RAINFALL UNTIL THE MOIST PLUME
SLOWLY OVERTAKES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY ONCE
WINDS ALOFT VEER MORE WSW. HOWEVER, LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ON SUNDAY
WILL BE EVEN LESS THAN SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH, SO CONVECTION LOOKS VERY CONTINGENT ON
DIURNAL HEATING AND INSTABILITY WHICH COULD BE THWARTED BY THICKER
MID- LEVEL CLOUDS IN THIS MOIST PLUME.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS WEST ALONG THE UPPER
RIO GRANDE WHICH SHOULD VAPORIZE ANY REMNANTS OF OUR MONSOONAL
CLOUDS FROM SUNDAY. WEDNESDAY STILL FEATURES A COMPACT UPPER LOW
DRIFTING ACROSS IDAHO AND WYOMING BEFORE MINORING OUT OVER THE
PLAINS BY THURSDAY. MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON THIS WAVE'S POTENTIAL TO
SEND A COLD FRONT OUR WAY BY LATE WEEK, SO FOR NOW IMPACTS ARE SLIM
OUTSIDE OF SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP O/A THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STANLEY
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...26
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page