370
FXUS64 KLUB 121758
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1258 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1256 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION ON SATURDAY.
- STORM CHANCES WILL THEN EXPAND OVER THE REST OF THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
WATER VAPOR CHANNEL IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS AN EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS STATES AT MIDDAY, WITH A
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AXIS ALSO IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE WESTERN TROUGHING WILL EXPAND AND
ACCELERATE EASTWARD, RESULTING IN PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADING OUR AREA. QUIET WEATHER WILL NEVERTHELESS
CONTINUE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, AS INITIAL MOISTURE INCREASES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE. BY SATURDAY MORNING, MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL INCREASE WITH WINDS BECOMING RELATIVELY BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED FROM SW
KS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THEN APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE STATE LINE BY
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES
ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL JET STREAK. THESE INITIAL
STORMS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SW TX
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS GIVEN WHAT WILL
LIKELY STILL BE A SHARP DECREASE IN COLUMN MOISTURE FROM WEST TO
EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A NOTABLE MIDLEVEL DRY LAYER
REMAINING IN PLACE OVER AND EAST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR, AND WHILE AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR I-27 ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THE BULK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOCUSED FARTHER WEST WITH POPS THEREFORE KEPT BELOW MENTIONABLE
LEVELS EAST OF I-27 THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. WHERE STORMS DO
DEVELOP, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN ELONGATED INSTABILITY
PROFILES AND PWATS NEAR 150% OF NORMAL LEVELS, BUT RELATIVELY FAST
STORM MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE FLOODING THREAT LOCALIZED. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ALSO APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME, THOUGH A FEW INSTANCES
OF HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE TX/NM
STATE LINE. TEMPERATURE-WISE, HIGHS SATURDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE 80S TO LOW 90S DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS MILD
SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGHING WILL TAKE ON A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM
WY/CO INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE DRAMATIC
INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA COMPARED TO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY, WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SECOND ROUND WILL LIKELY COVER A
LARGER PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE
UPPER TROUGH, WITH MENTIONABLE POPS MAINTAINED AREA-WIDE FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO THE OVERALL
SETUP ON SATURDAY, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS ON SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT THE FLOODING
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED. CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WELL
AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE EXIT OF THE UPPER TROUGH, BUT
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD COMPARED TO SATURDAY NIGHT.
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY FLAT RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN TX AND NORTHERN MEXICO. A PERIOD OF DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD
WEATHER IS THEREFORE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY THEREAFTER, WITH MODELS
IN POOR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH
AND A TRAIN OF MORE PROGRESSIVE DISTURBANCES OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS. FOR NOW CONSENSUS FAVORS CONTINUATION OF A MAINLY DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. WE MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND SUNRISE
AT LUBBOCK OR PLAINVIEW AROUND 1000 FT.
KLO/AKM
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...KLO/AKM
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