320
FXUS64 KLUB 131746
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1246 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE CAPROCK.
- COVERAGE IN STORMS INCREASE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WHERE WE COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- AFTER LINGERING PRECIPITATION SUNDAY, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS
A RESULT, MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OVER THE REGION. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO AID
IN INCREASED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY WITHIN
THE H3 TO H7 LEVELS. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, WINDS REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH, WITH THE BREEZY UPSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WIND SURFACE MOISTURE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE ON
THE RISE WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH CLOSER TO THE REGION, AS
THE ASSOCIATED H5 JET STREAK INCHES CLOSER TO THE REGION, BECOMING
POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
RADAR IMAGERY AS OF 12 PM DEPICTS THE REMNANTS FROM THE OVERNIGHT
LINE OF STORMS BEGINNING TO FIZZLE OUT ACROSS OUR TWO MOST WESTERN
COLUMN OF COUNTIES. HI-RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY
LINE OF STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE LINE AND TRACK
INTO THE FA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER, THIS
FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY, MAINLY FOR THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE, DUE TO THE FACT THAT
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS LINGERED THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND MAY
CAUSE THE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME OVERWORKED. BY THE LOOKS OF IT
CURRENTLY, WITH THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT JUST WEST OF THE I-27
CORRIDOR, WE WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE I-27 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS UNTAPPED. WE MAY EVEN SEE AN EARLIER SHOW, WITH LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWING SOME ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE
FROM PLAINS COUNTY TO SWISHER COUNTY. DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
BE LIMITED ACROSS THE CAPROCK, WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
BETTER INSTABILITY RESIDE, WHILE OFF THE CAPROCK DEWPOINTS REMAIN
DRIER IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. ONE THING THAT REMAINS SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS IS THE SEVERE THREAT, WITH THE OVERALL THREAT
REMAINING LOW WITH AN OCCASIONAL STRONG WINDS GUST AND INSTANCE OF
SMALLER HAIL POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN PLACE
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA DEPICTING LONG-SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES AND A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHERE
WE SEE COVERAGE IN STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE LLJ RAMPS UP
AND STORMS BEGIN TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FA. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, WENT AHEAD AND TRENDED ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS ACROSS THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRATUS DECK HAS
CREEPED ITS WAY IN. GIVEN THE LOW CLOUD DECK AND ANTICIPATION OF
RAINFALL WE WILL LIKELY SEE LIMITED DIURNAL HEATING WITH HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN NBM. THEREFORE OPTED FOR A BLEND OF CONSHORT AND
NBM 25TH PERCENTILE ACROSS THE CAPROCK FOR HIGHS, IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S, WHILE OFF THE CAPROCK MAINTAINED NBM HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S.
AS FOR SUNDAY, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH AN
ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTH. DUE TO THE
INCREASED MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE, WE WILL LIKELY SEE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY SUNDAY. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
LOW WITH PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO DIMINISH BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING AS WE
LOSE JET DYNAMICS WITH THE DEPARTING OF THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE, ALTHOUGH STILL WARM
THANKS TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS, IN THE 80S AREA-WIDE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
HEADED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE
FA FINDS ITSELF BENEATH A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CAPROCK AND LOWER 90S OFF THE CAPROCK.
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, SUBTLE DISTURBANCES RIPPLING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WIND MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE IN FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ON THE WEAKER SIDE, SO THE BIG
FACTOR IS IF STORMS CAN HOLD TOGETHER BEFORE REACHING WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA. OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF SEEING PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRANSLATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, HOWEVER MODELS ARE NOT QUITE
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH AT THIS POINT IN
TIME. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME, WILL GO AHEAD AND
MAINTAIN NBM SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
UNTIL WE SEE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM, A
BROAD AREA OF SHRA ABOUT 30 NM WEST OF LBB AND PVW AT 17Z WILL VERY
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH SOME
ISOLATED EMBEDDED TS POSSIBLE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF THUNDER AT LBB OR PVW THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY, BUT OVERALL CONVECTIVE IMPACTS TO ANY
TERMINAL APPEAR UNLIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. A MORE ROBUST LINE OF
HEAVIER TSRA IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
AFTER ABOUT 03Z WITH PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITY, LOW CIGS, AND
STRONG/ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY EXIT THE REGION BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY, WITH MVFR CIGS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD AT LBB AND PVW.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...30
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