821
FXUS64 KLUB 151116
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
616 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 612 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
- ISOLATED STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK, MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HIGHER CHANCES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
THE STUBBORN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER IN AND AROUND
CHILDRESS HAVE FINALLY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH
DEPARTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND MAY CLIP THIS
SAME AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, A QUIET NIGHT IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WITH PARTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT
WINDS, AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER THE FAR SW PANHANDLE
TO THE LOW-TO-MID 60S ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
SUNDAY AND AN APPROACHING RIDGE, PATCHY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE
AROUND SUNRISE, MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK. THIS SHOULD QUICKLY BURN
OFF AND A MOSTLY PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE BUILDS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE
IN THE MID-TO- UPPER 80S ARE LIKELY. CAMS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER, THERE IS AN ABSENCE OF NOTABLE FEATURES PROVIDING
ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF FORCING. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S,
SO THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A ROGUE CELL OR TWO AND SOME MENTIONABLE POPS HAVE
BEEN RETAINED. NONETHELESS, THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS NOT
PARTICULARLY SUPPORTIVE OF DRIVING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SIMILAR
LOW TEMPERATURES AS THIS MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
WEAK UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST ON TUESDAY AND BRING LITTLE CHANGE FROM
MONDAY. A COMPLEX UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CREATE
FORECASTING CHALLENGES BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO DESCEND OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST AND A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. NOTHING
ELSE IS TERRIBLY ANOMALOUS. THE LATEST NAM DOES INDICATE SOME
SEMBLANCE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET CLIPPING THE FAR SW PANHANDLE, PUTTING
IT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION, BUT THIS AREA WOULD BE UPSTREAM OF
THE WEAK VORT LOBES FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. IN ANY CASE,
LIKE MONDAY, SOME MENTIONABLE POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED, BUT ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED.
AN UPPER LOW WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM ITS PARENT TROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND LEAD TO AN ALMOST FUJIWARA
LIKE EFFECT WITH THE MORE BROAD TROUGH NOW CENTERED OVER THE
DAKOTAS. AS THIS OCCURS IT WILL PUSH AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE OVER THE
PANHANDLE, LEADING AGAIN TO POSSIBLE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. AS THE TWO LOWS MERGE
ON THURSDAY, THE OVERALL TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND BRING THE BEST STORM CHANCES OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. BROAD CHANCE POPS WILL BE CONTINUED IN THE LATEST
FORECAST GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE UPPER PATTERN TO THE NORTH.
THINGS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. A
RELATIVELY STRONG RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
HOWEVER EMBEDDED WAVES MAY CONTINUE TO BRING THE USUAL LATE-DAY
STORM CHANCES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
VERY PATCHY FOG WAS LINGERING AROUND THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WHICH MAY AFFECT KLBB OR KPVW BUT THE LIMITED COVERAGE DOES NOT
WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF. A THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS
ALSO SAGGING INTO THE AREA WHICH HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AT KCDS AND KPVW. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...01
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