399
FXUS64 KLUB 151721
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1221 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
THE NEAR TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY QUIET WITH A TEMPERATURES
JUST ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A MODEST
BUILDING OF THE RIDGE OVERHEAD TODAY WILL STABILIZE TUESDAY WILL
MOSTLY RESULT IN SOME STABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES, AND IN TANDEM WITH DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES REMAINING THE 60S, CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES COULD BE
REACHED. MAINTAINING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WORDING
REMAINS JUSTIFIED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SCALE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
LIMITED IN BOTH AREAL AND TEMPORAL TERMS. A REPEAT IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES COME IN THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT SOUTHWARD
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BEGINS TO MOVE
TO THE EAST, AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES WITH A MERGING OF MODEST JET
STREAKS FROM BOTH BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM FROM UTAH SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WEST TEXAS. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVE ONTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AS THE UPPER JET STREAK NOSES
ACROSS NEW MEXICO. AN INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN THIS
SCENARIO WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40,
BUT A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION INTO MAINLY THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY MORNING SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. HOWEVER, NBM POPS STILL APPEAR A BIT TOO HIGH GIVEN
MAJORITY OF BOTH MODEL RUN QPF RENDERINGS AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND
WILL THUS CAP THOSE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. POPS TREND DOWNWARD
A BIT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THE PARENT UPPER
TROUGH IS SLOW TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS. A FIRMER TREND TOWARD A
DRIER FORECAST COMES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEKEND AS
HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE WITH A NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER, ALTHOUGH THERE
CURRENTLY IS A NOD TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE
INCREASE IN HEIGHTS AT THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
WILL RUN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS. ISOLATED TS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF
KLBB/KPVW AND SOUTH OF KCDS. THE OTHER POSSIBLE RISK IS FOG
DEVELOPMENT TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE SIGNAL IS PRETTY WEAK, BUT
SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS MEAN IT'S A
POSSIBILITY.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
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