706
FXUS64 KLUB 161101
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
601 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 600 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY, OTHERWISE MOSTLY
SUNNY AND DRY.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TAPERED OFF AND A QUIET
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS,
AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-TO-MID 60S. TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY UNDER A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S. DEWPOINTS OVERALL WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, HOWEVER WILL STILL REACH THE
LOW 60S. COMBINED WITH NORMAL DAYTIME INSTABILITY, THIS MAY AGAIN
LEAD TO ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. THESE SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET AND A PERSISTENT FORECAST
WILL BE IN ORDER WITH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY SIMILAR AS
THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS STILL PROGGED TO BECOME FAIRLY MESSY DURING
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD RESULTING IN LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. IN GENERAL, A COMPLEX
BLOCKING PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE BY WEDNESDAY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
RIDGING OVER CANADA CAUSES A BROAD UPPER LOW TO STAGNATE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A SEPARATE LOW IS ALSO PROGGED TO STALL OFF THE
SOCAL COAST WITH ANOTHER OPEN TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST AT THE SAME TIME. THE BLOCK IS GENERALLY TRENDING MORE ROBUST
WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN, WHICH FAVORS THE CENTRAL LOW
REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR LONGER WHICH IN TURN
KEEPS DRIER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.
AS A RESULT, THE TREND OVER THE PAST FEW FORECASTS TOWARDS A DRIER
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY CONTINUES WITH MOST PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS PERIOD LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE MORE TOWARDS THE I-40
CORRIDOR. LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
BLOCKING PATTERN WILL WEAKEN WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED CLOSED LOWS
OPENING AND SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS EVOLUTION
WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF STRONGER AND MORE UNSETTLED
WNW FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA WHICH A MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLES ALSO
SUGGEST WILL BRING BETTER RAIN CHANCES BACK TO MOST OF THE REGION
FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT GIVEN THE CHAOTIC UPPER
FLOW REGIME, CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR IMPACTS IS STILL
VERY LOW. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LOW
TO OUR NORTH SHOULD KEEP MIDLEVEL HEIGHT TENDENCIES FAIRLY NEUTRAL
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH SOME HINTS OF
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH RETURNING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THE MOMENT.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...01
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