481
FXUS64 KLUB 151718
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1218 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE FAR SW PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING OFF
THE CAPROCK.
- ROLLERCOASTER TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
CLIMBING GENERALLY INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 80S. DESPITE THE UPSLOPE SE
SURFACE FLOW WITH WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH, NO GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS EXPECTED AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. LIKEWISE, WE WILL SEE A
SIMILARLY QUIET EVENING, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. A RELATIVELY DEEP
UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THURSDAY. IT SHOULD DISPLACE THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE ENOUGH TO HAVE
AT LEAST SOMEWHAT OF AN INFLUENCE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS IN THESE LOCATIONS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IN ANY CASE, STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE
WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST AND ANY STORMS SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE OR
WIDESPREAD. LATEST CAMS SUPPORT THIS THINKING AS WELL. OTHERWISE,
THURSDAY AGAIN WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
THE EXTENDED STILL PROMISES A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN COMPLETE WITH
FROPAS AND SOME ROLLERCOASTER TEMPS, BUT LITTLE IN TERMS OF RAIN.
THURSDAY EVENING OPENS WITH AN UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
GREAT BASIN WITHIN A BROADER, POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH THAT CREEPS
CLOSER TO WEST TX THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE FORCING IS NOT MUCH TO WRITE
ABOUT THIS FAR SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER JET, WE WILL HAVE A BAND OF
DECAYING MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECT ACROSS THE CAPROCK THURSDAY
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SUBTLE H7 SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THIS
SHORTWAVE IS ILL-TIMED WITH PEAK HEATING, ANY LINGERING CONVECTION
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD PERK UP AFTER SUNSET NEAR THE TX-NM
BORDER AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER
ON FRIDAY, WINDS VEER WSW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WHILE DRAGGING THE
SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE CAPROCK BY THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF VERY WARM
DOWNSLOPE BREEZES. IMPROVED GULF MOISTURE FARTHER EAST SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A DECENT DRYLINE TO SET UP IN THE ROLLING PLAINS, BUT ONLY MODEST
CONVERGENCE ALONE ON THE DRYLINE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED H7 TROUGH. THIS STORY
IMPROVES BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HEIGHT FALLS IN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MORE IMPORTANTLY A WEAK COLD FRONT TO BOLSTER
LL CONVERGENCE, SO A NARROW WINDOW OF 20 POPS SEEMS REASONABLE OFF
THE CAPROCK.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL FAIR A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY, BUT STILL END
UP SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND DRY NW WINDS.
AS THESE WINDS DECLINE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SURFACE HIGH, WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 40S ARE A GOOD BET WITH EVEN
SOME UPPER 30S IN OUR NW COUNTIES. THE NBM IS NOT DOING THIS SETUP
JUSTICE, SO OPTED FOR THE COOLER LOWS OF CONSMOS. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY WHILE LIGHT SOUTHERLIES ENSUE IN THE LOW LEVELS
FOLLOWING THE CHILLY START TO THE MORNING.
12Z GUIDANCE DIVERGES SHARPLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE GFS
NOW ACCELERATES AN UPPER LOW EAST FROM THE BAJA BY SUNDAY NIGHT
COMPLETE WITH PRECIP ON OUR TURF. THIS SUDDEN SHIFT IS ODD AS
LITTLE/NO PHASING OF THIS WAVE IS EVIDENT WITH ANY NEIGHBORING
TROUGHS, SO WE'LL STICK WITH A TOASTY, BREEZY AND DRY THEME FOR
MONDAY UNDER SEMI-ZONAL FLOW. THIS HEAT SHUTS DOWN QUICKLY FOLLOWING
A HEALTHY FROPA MONDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF A SHARP TROUGH SWINGING INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW MAY FINALLY INTRODUCE
RAIN CHANCES BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY PROVIDED IT PHASES WITH THE
NEXT TROUGH IN WESTERLY FLOW, BUT THE DEGREE OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND
GENERALLY POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY WARRANT KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
VFR AND GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...19
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