707
FXUS64 KLUB 161113
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
613 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 612 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
- A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST FRIDAY, WITH A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE REGION.
- ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, THE COLD CORE CYCLONE EMBEDDED WITHIN A
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS, WHICH HAS SHIFTED THE APEX OF THE
AMPLIFYING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT PLAINS. THE CWA
REMAINS WITHIN THE INFLECTION POINT OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION TO THE SHARPENING
BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS BY THIS EVENING, WITH THE PRIMARY VORTICITY
LOBE LOCATED NEARLY 900 MILES NORTH OF THE CWA. SERIES OF SMALLER-
SCALE PERTURBATIONS WILL ALSO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND EJECT OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF MOIST, ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHIFTING OVER W TX
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD FETCH OF SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REMAINS INTACT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF THE
AZ/NM STATE LINE. A DIFFUSE TROUGH BRANCHES SOUTHWARD FROM A LEE
CYCLONE NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE. LEEWARD PRESSURE FALLS WERE
STEEPENING AHEAD OF THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND THE RELATED
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND EVOLVE
INTO A BRISK BREEZE BY THE LATE-MORNING HOURS. STRONG HEATING IS
EXPECTED TODAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER-MIDDLE 80S ON THE
CAPROCK AND INTO THE MIDDLE-UPPER 80S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS, AS DEEP
MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL OCCUR.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE I-27 CORRIDOR, AS THE RIBBON OF MOIST, ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP
THE ARRIVAL OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT IN EASTERN NM OCCURS IN
CONGRUENCE WITH PEAK HEATING. THE INTENSITY OF THE KINEMATIC FIELDS
RELATIVE TO THE SKINNY UPDRAFTS AND ENTRAINMENT OF PARCELS LIFTING
PAST THE LFC WILL KEEP COVERAGE ISOLATED EVEN IF A ROW OF TCU
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
FAST-MOVING, WITH A MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR TO THE NORTHEAST AT
NEARLY 40 KT. THEREFORE, THE RESIDENCE TIME OF STORMS IN THE CWA
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, WITH STORM POTENTIAL WANING PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT
CDT/05Z TONIGHT. BREEZY WINDS WILL LAST INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS,
WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE MANUALLY ADJUSTED FOR
LOCALES IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TX PH, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF BAILEY AND PARMER COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL NEAR THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AS A BASAL, SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LAGS BEHIND OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. CONFLUENT WINDS WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CWA, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT WHILE REMAINING BACKED POLEWARD AHEAD OF IT IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS. THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A WIDE
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NEAR
THE NM STATE LINE TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. POPS WERE
EFFECTIVELY NIL FROM THE RECENT NBM, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIVER
IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TX PH, AND THIS IS BEING MAINTAINED DESPITE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS INDICATING POPS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. WHILE
SOME TURRETS/TCU MAY DEVELOP, IT APPEARS THAT THE DELETERIOUS
EFFECTS OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL PREVENT UPDRAFTS FROM MATURING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE SURFACE
LOW BEING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA AND NEAR THE OK PH.
THE BASAL, SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT OVER THE CWA SATURDAY
MORNING, CAUSING THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT TO FINALLY MOVE TO THE EAST
OF THE CWA AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST. A SIMILAR TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT COMPARED TO FRIDAY IS FORECAST, WITH THE COOLEST HIGHS NEAR
THE NM STATE LINE WHILE ADIABATIC COMPRESSION IS ENHANCED ALONG THE
LEE OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT, THUS BOLSTERING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN INTENSE,
NORTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS, RESULTING IN THE PASSAGE OF A STRONGER, SECONDARY COLD
FRONT, WITH A MODIFIED CP AIRMASS, FORECAST SATURDAY EVENING AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PRESSURE TENDENCIES WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN AS
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA, BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE IMMEDIATE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF A
CLEAR SKY, LIGHT WINDS, AND A 1024 MB POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH WILL
YIELD EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST
OF THE CWA AND INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
MUCH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY, BUT REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL EVEN AS WINDS VEERED NORTHEASTWARD. GLOBAL NWP GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES ON THE AMPLITUDE AND POSITION
OF THE MEAN TROUGHING AND WHETHER OR NOT A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS TO
THE WEST OF THE CWA. REGARDLESS, ADDITIONAL FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE TRAIN OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 NEXT WEEK, WITH A BRIEF WARM-UP MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD
FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE CWA SHOULD
BE BEREFT OF ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE KLBB AND KPVW TERMINALS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...01
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page